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Best MLB Player Props Today 7/8/25 – MLB Home Run Props Today

  • Writer: Kof
    Kof
  • Jul 8
  • 3 min read

Welcome back to our Best MLB Player Props Today series for July 8, 2025. It’s Dinger Tuesday and it's a great slate for home run props, with multiple power hitters in elite matchups and weather conditions supporting long balls across the league.

Today, we’re targeting three home run props backed by matchup history, pitching vulnerabilities, and hitting environment data.


MLB Home Run Props Today

Here are three players with the best value to hit a home run today:


1️⃣ Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) to Hit a Home Run (+320 DraftKings)

Why We Love This Prop:

  • Career vs Merrill Kelly: Tatis is 10 for 28 (.357) lifetime against Kelly with 4 home runs in that sample (ESPN Player Stats).

  • Power vs Pitcher Profile: Kelly’s fastball-changeup-heavy approach feeds Tatis’ aggressive uppercut swing path, with an expected slugging of .612 against similar pitch mixes (Baseball Savant Tatis Profile).

  • Ballpark Factor: Chase Field ranks top-10 in MLB for home run park factor this season (MLB Park Factors).


2️⃣ Juan Soto (Mets) to Hit a Home Run (+285 DraftKings)

Why We Love This Prop:

  • Ballpark Factor: Camden Yards ranks #2 in MLB for home runs hit over the last year, despite its deeper left field dimensions (MLB Park Factors).

  • Weather Boost: Tonight’s forecast in Baltimore calls for hot, humid conditions ideal for ball carry (Weather.com Baltimore Forecast).

  • Matchup: Soto faces Brandon Young, who enters with a 7.02 ERA, putting everything on a tee lately (MLB.com Young Stats).

  • Power Split: Soto has hit 16 of his 24 home runs against right-handed pitching this season (Fangraphs Soto Splits).


3️⃣ Rob Refsnyder (Red Sox) to Hit a Home Run (+650 DraftKings)

Why We Love This Prop:

  • Projected Lineup Advantage: Refsnyder should be in the lineup tonight with the Red Sox facing left-hander Kyle Freeland.

  • Career vs Freeland: Limited sample (1 for 2 with a double), but his power splits tell the story.

  • Lefty Killer: Refsnyder has hit 4 of his 5 home runs this season off lefties (Fangraphs Splits).

  • Pitcher Struggles at Fenway: Freeland has pitched at Fenway Park only once in his career and allowed 3 home runs in that start (MLB.com Freeland Game Log).

  • Hitting Conditions: Hot and humid forecast again tonight at Fenway, where the ball was flying last night with multiple long balls hit (Weather.com Boston Forecast).


Stats Recap

Player

Matchup History

Season Splits

Odds

Fernando Tatis Jr.

.357 (10 for 28) vs Kelly, 4 HRs

.309 avg vs RHP, .569 SLG

+320

Rob Refsnyder

1 for 2 vs Freeland (double)

4 of 5 HRs vs LHP

+650

Juan Soto

N/A vs Young

.288 avg, .537 SLG vs RHP

+285

Why These Home Run Props Have Value Today

  • Elite matchup data for Tatis and Refsnyder

  • Weather and park factor edges in Boston and Baltimore

  • Pitcher vulnerabilities with high ERA starters and poor contact management

  • Strong odds relative to underlying metrics


Final Picks – Best MLB Home Run Props Today 7/8/25

Bets:

  • Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+320)

  • Juan Soto to hit a home run (+285)

  • Rob Refsnyder to hit a home run (+650)


Longshot Parlay

If you’re feeling bold, a home run parlay of all three would pay 121-1 odds, though this is a lotto ticket parlay.


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Let’s cash these home run props today and keep building a profitable July. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s Best MLB Player Props for your daily edge.

MLB Home Run Props Today 7/8/25

 
 
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