MLB Home Run Derby Picks and Predictions (2025) – Everything You Need to Know
- Kof
- 9 minutes ago
- 3 min read
The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby is here, and fans and bettors alike are ready for one of the most electric events in baseball. Whether you're betting on the total number of homers, picking the outright winner, or just looking for MLB Home Run Derby picks and predictions, we’ve got you covered with the latest odds, stats, and smart picks.
This year’s field is stacked, and the altitude, weather conditions, and format could all play a role in outcomes. Let’s break down the top props and predictions for this year's Derby, including one of the most popular pick: Cal Raleigh at +295 to win it all.
Quick Details – 2025 Home Run Derby
Date: July 14, 2025
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Broadcast: ESPN / ESPN2
Format: Timed rounds, bonus time for 440+ foot homers
Participants: 8 sluggers, head-to-head bracket
MLB Home Run Derby Picks and Predictions
🧨 1. Total Home Runs Hit – Over/Under 239.5
2024 Total: 225 homers
2025 Line: 239.5
Pick: UNDER 239.5
Despite the weather for HOTlanta, 239.5 is a steep number. Last year’s total was 225.
🧨 2. Round One Total Home Runs – Over/Under 154.5
2024 Round One Total: 138
2025 Line: 154.5
Pick: UNDER 154.5
Round One often draws the most aggressive swings, but timed pressure and nerves tend to hold some hitters back. With last year's first round at 138, expecting nearly 20 more this year is risky, even with the warm temps. Watch for slow starts.
🧨 3. Most Total Home Runs Hit by Winner – Over/Under 53.5
2024 Finalists: 50 & 49 homers
2025 Line: 53.5
Pick: UNDER 53.5
The Derby is a war of attrition, and while we often see big first-round performances, we also need to consider the new format that was put in place before the 2024 Home Run Derby so looking back at prior formats isn't truly and apples to apples comparison.
Who Will Win the 2025 Home Run Derby?
🔥 Pick: Cal Raleigh +295
Cal Raleigh is having a monster season heading into the break with 38 home runs, the most in baseball. Nicknamed "Big Dumper" for his size and raw power, Raleigh has been crushing balls 440+ feet consistently, which is key to earning bonus time in the Derby format.
Average Exit Velo: 94.6 MPH
Barrel Rate: 18.9% (Top 5% of MLB)
450+ Foot Homers: 9 this season
Raleigh's lefty power swing should play well at Truist Park with the shortest part of the park being 325 to right field. He’s also shown he can stay strong through full-game efforts, which bodes well in a tournament where endurance separates the contenders from the champions.
✅ Value play and elite power profile make him a top-tier pick to win.
Who is in the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
The full field includes 8 participants, typically announced during the All-Star break. This year’s field includes top sluggers like Cal Raleigh, Oneil Cruz, James Wood, Matt Olsen, Brent Rooker, Byron Buxton, Jazz Chisholm Jr, and Junior Caminero.
What time is the Home Run Derby tonight?
The 2025 Home Run Derby starts at 8 PM ET on July 14, 2025, airing live on ESPN.
Where is the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby?
This year’s Derby takes place at Truist Park, Atlanta, GA, a middle of the pack stadium for homeruns hit ranking 15th over the last three seasons rolling.
How does the Home Run Derby format work?
The Derby features head-to-head matchups, each round being 3 minutes long (plus bonus time for 440+ ft HRs). Winners advance to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Who has the most home runs in a single Home Run Derby?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. holds the record with 91 total home runs in the 2019 Derby.
What are the best bets for the Home Run Derby?
Top betting picks for the 2025 Derby include:
Cal Raleigh +295 to win
Under 239.5 total home runs
Under 154.5 Round One home runs
Under 53.5 total by the winner
Final Thoughts: How to Bet the 2025 Home Run Derby
This year’s Home Run Derby is shaping up to be another high-flying event, but don’t get caught betting overs blindly just because it's the Home Run Derby. Despite all of the hype, recent data and player trends suggest value on the under in most props.
With Cal Raleigh entering the break with the most home runs in baseball and a swing built for this format, he’s our top pick to win the 2025 Derby.