We have a full slate of MLB action for today so we are taking a look at what the best MLB Player Props are for today. We will target some hitters and pitchers with good matchups then we will try to pick a low risk high reward homerun parlay. Let's get into our MLB Player Props for today.
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MLB Player Props 5/3
MLB Hit Parlay
Justin Turner (TOR) Hit / Freddie Freeman (LAD) Hit (-118) *VIP*
These two guys are facing starting pitchers who they have really had a lot of success against in the past. Justin Turner will be facing Patrick Corbin and he comes in hitting .381 against him with 4 doubles and 2 homeruns. It's impressive because Turner has 42 career at bats against Corbin so he has seen a lot of him. It also helps that Corbin has basically been putting the ball on a tee for hitters this season so look for Turner to get a hit against him tonight. Next up for this hit parlay will be Freddie Freeman who will be facing Charlie Morton. I usually hold back on betting a guy in a hit parlay going up against a pitcher who has been dealing like Morton has been but Freeman's head to head history against him is enough to make me feel good about it. Freeman comes in 10 for 20 against him with 3 career homeruns against him. Freeman has also hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games!
Tanner Houck (BOS) Outs Recorded Over (17.5)
Houck has been great this season minus one bad start. Take that start out and he's only allowed 3 earned runs in 33.2 innings with 39 strikeouts. 18 outs is 6 complete innings pitched and he has done that in 5 of his 6 starts this season with 5.2 pitched in the 1 game he didn't go 6+. He's been on fire in his last 3 starts going 6.2, 6, & 9 innings. He also has a 62% ground ball rate over his last three starts which makes for easy outs, double plays, and avoids getting in jams for the most part which can run up the pitch count and cause a threat for him to get taken out of the game early. He's going to be pitching against the Twins tonight who he has been good against the majority of the guys in the lineup so I'm expecting another start where he goes deep into the game and records 18+ outs.
MLB Player Prop Home Run Bets 5/3
I don't think the common baseball bettor really understands how HARD it is to predict a player to hit a homerun. It's hard enough to predict a team to get a win or a player to get a hit but when you start trying to predict a guy to go deep, it's really hard. It makes for some fun with good odds but these kind of bets need to be low risk (funzies) because the likelihood of them happening (especially the parlay) are pretty slim. I've had a ton of people asking me to do more of these because of the history with the Dinger Tuesday promo so let's swing for the fence with these tonight. LOW RISK BETS PEOPLE.
I like to start by looking at the starting pitchers with the most homeruns allowed on the season who are pitching today. Here's that list:
Aaron Nola - 7
Aaron Civale - 6
Cal Quantrill - 6
Chris Paddack - 5
Marcus Stroman - 5
Now let's take a look at what hitters are facing them and who is a good candidate to go deep today.
No one in the Giants lineup is worth touching vs Nola in my opinion.
Pete Alonso is facing Civale and ranks 5th in the league with homeruns hit.
Bryan Reynolds is 4 for 7 lifetime vs Quantrill so those are intriguing numbers.
Rafael Devers is 2 for 2 lifetime vs Paddack. Tyler O'Neill is 3rd in the league with 9 homeruns.
Javy Baez comes in with 2 career homeruns vs Stroman but Baez has been hitting like it's an online game of MLB The Show with a ton of lag this season so I am not going to touch him.
MLB Player Prop Homerun Parlay
Pete Alonso
Bryan Reynolds
Rafael Devers
(+10940)
