Alright, I sent my apology on Wednesday and if you’re reading this then you have accepted it so let’s move on. Over 1,000 people opened it and only 4 unsubscribed so I appreciate all of you who are sticking around for the RELAUNCH! To reward you guys, I’ve put together a this player prop cheat sheet for the Super Bowl! These are not official picks, I’m just sharing information, trends, and maybe my opinion on some of them because I can’t help it. Let’s get into it.
To set up the player prop betting strategy let’s start by throwing a dart at the board with the exact final score prediction:
Chiefs 27 49ers 24
That’s 50 to 1 on Fanduel for anyone who wants to throw down.
Super Bowl Player Props (I’ve highlighted some of the ones that stand out)
Passing:
SF Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 215.6 (13th)
KC Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 181.5 (4th)
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards (261.5)
Under in 2 of 3 playoffs games (cold weather games)
Under in 7 of his last 11 overall
Over in 2 of 3 Super Bowls
Goff threw for 273 on 49ers in playoffs
Brock Purdy Passing Yards (248.5)
Over in 2 of 2 playoff games
Over in 12 of last 16 overall
3 of the 5 NFC QBs to face the Chiefs went over 248.5 in the regular season, the two who went under were Hurts and Fields.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns (1.5)
Under in 2 of 3 playoffs games (cold weather games)
Under in 6 of last 8 overall
Over in 2 of 3 Super Bowls
Hard to not like over 1.5 touchdown passes for Mahomes in a Super Bowl.
Brock Purdy Passing Touchdowns (1.5)
Under in 2 of 2 playoff games
9 and 7 to the over in the regular season
Only 4 teams allowed less touchdown passes to QBs in the regular season than KC.
Patrick Mahomes Completions (25.5)
Under in 2 of 3 playoff games (cold weather games)
Under in 6 of last 10 overall
Over in 2 of 3 Super Bowls but finished just over with 26 in both of those games he went over
Brock Purdy Completions (20.5)
Over in 1 o 2 playoff games
He averaged 19.5 completions per game in the regular season
KC allowed 20.3 completions per game
Race to 100 Passing Yards Mahomes (-120) vs Purdy (-105)
Give me Mahomes
Rushing:
SF Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 97 (5th)
KC Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 113.2 (17th)
SF Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 4.3
KC Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 4.5
Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards (90.5)
Ran for 90 and 98 in the playoffs
Averaged 91.1 rushing yards per game in the regular season
KC allowing 4.5 rushing yards per attempt is eye opening and McCaffrey should be able to take advantage of that.
Zamir White ran for 145, Josh Jacobs ran for 110 - Christian McCaffrey should be in for 90.5 rushing yards unless the 49ers get down multiple scores early.
Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards (16.5)
Under in 12 of 17 overall
Under in 5 of last 6 playoff games
Had a 32 yard run against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 54
Elijah Mitchell Rushing Yards (4.5)
Over in 7 straight games
Averaging 34 rushing yards per game during that stretch
Take out the outliers of 80 and 53 yard games and he’s averaged 21.2 in his last 5
Isaiah Pacheco Rushing Yards (67.5)
Over in all 3 playoff games - 68, 97, & 89 (cold weather games)
Over in 5 of 6 career playoff games
Over in 5 of last 6 overall this season
SF allowed 108 to Aaron Jones and 93 to David Montgomer in the playoffs
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards (25.5)
Under in 2 of 3 playoff games
Over in 10 of 19 games overall
Over in all 3 career Super Bowls - 29, 33, & 44
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards (6.5)
Over in 2 of 3 playoff games
9 and 9 on the season
Christian McCaffrey Rushing Attempts (18.5)
Under in 1 of 2 playoff games
Under in 10 of last 13 overall
You would think the 49ers will want to lean on the run game if they are successful for long drives and to keep Mahomes on the sideline as much as possible.
Isiah Pacheco Rushing Attempts (16.5)
Over in 2 of 3 playoff games - 24, 15, 24 (cold weather games)
5 and 5 over his last 10 overall
Receiving:
SF Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 215.6 (13th)
KC Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 181.5 (4th)
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards (70.5)
11 receptions on 11 targets for 116 yards with 22 camera redirects to Taylor Swift in the AFC Championship game
Over in all 3 playoff games
Over in his last 12 playoff games
Rashee Rice Receiving Yards (67.5)
Under in 2 of 3 playoff games (cold weather games)
Over in 4 of final 6 regular season games
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards (19.5)
Over in 2 of 3 playoff games
9 overs 10 unders this season
1 target in the Super Bowl last year
Isaiah Pachedo Receiving Yards (17.5)
Under in 8 of his last 10 games
Richie James Jr. Receiving Yards (3.5)
1 and 1 in the playoffs
Over in 8 of 10 games although 5 of those 8 over games were on 1 reception
Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards (59.5)
Over in 1 of 2 playoff games
8 overs 8 unders in the regular season
Had 7 100+ yard games on the season
Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards (58.5)
89 yards on 8 receptions in the NFC CHampionship
7 over and 7 under in full games played this season
When he has gone over, he’s gone way over by an average of 40.2 yards per game.
George Kittle Receiving Yards (49.5)
This number feels low.
Over in 1 of 2 playoff games
Over in 8 of the final 10 regular season games
Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards (34.5)
Over in 1 of 2 playoff games
Under in 6 of last 9 overall
Travis Kelce Receptions (6.5)
11 receptions in the AFC Championship game
Over in 2 of 3 playoff games
Rashee Rice Receptions (6.5)
Over in 2 of 3 playoff games
2nd on the team in targets in the playoffs with 23 just 2 behind Kelce who has 25
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions (1.5)
Had 2 receptions in each of his last 2 playoff games
9 overs 10 unders on the season
1 target in the Super Bowl last year
Isaiah Pachedo Receptions (3.5)
10-7 to the under this season
Brandon Aiyuk Receptions (4.5)
9 overs 9 unders on the season
Under in both playoff games
Deebo Samuel Receptions (4.5)
8 receptions on 9 targets in the NFC Championship
Under in 5 of his last 7 playoff games (full games played)
George Kittle Receptions (3.5)
Over in 1 of 2 playoff games
Under in 10 of 16 regular season games
If you are betting on Kittle, the yardage prop is the better bet.
Christian McCaffrey Receptions (4.5)
Over in 1 of 2 playoff games
Split down the middle 9 overs and 9 unders this season
Maybe you should just bet on the coin flip, just as good of a chance of hitting.
Kickers:
Jake Moody Field Goals Made (1.5)
Over in 1 of 2 playoff games
KC was 8th in Red Zone defense so that’s a good stat that favors the over for Moody
Harrison Butker Field Goals Made (1.5)
Over in 2 of 3 playoff games
Over in 7 of last 12 playoff games
Under in 2 of 3 Super Bowls
Anytime Touchdown Scorers:
Christian McCaffrey (-235)
4 touchdowns in 2 playoff games
14 touchdowns in the regular season ranked 4th in the league
Scored in 13 of 18 games overall
Parlay piece with the odds at -235
Isaiah Pacheco (-125)
Scored in all 3 playoff games
Has scored in 7 straight games
Scored in last year’s Super Bowl
Travis Kelce (-110)
Yes, this is one of the best value bets of the game.
Kelce has scored a TD in 12 of last 15 playoff games
Deebo Samuel (+135)
Scored in 8 of 17 games overall.
Can score through the air or on the ground
+135 is nice
Rashee Rice (+130)
Only scored in 1 of 3 playoff games (cold weather games)
Had a stretch from Nov-Dec where he scored in 3 of 5 games
+130 is nice
George Kittle (+170)
Scored in 1 of 2 playoff games
Had a 3 touchdown game against the Cowboys but only scored in 3 other regular season games.
Brandon Aiyuk (+175)
Scored in 1 of 2 playoff games
When things got tough for the 49ers in the regular season with their 3 game losing streak, Aiyuk was a go to guy for Purdy coming out of that stretch and scored in 4 straight games.
Patrick Mahomes (+425)
0 rushing touchdowns on the season
Had 1 rushing touchdown vs the 49ers in Super Bowl 54
Brock Purdy (+550)
2 rushing touchdowns on the season