3-1 night to improve to 8-3 on the week! We jusssst missed that 4-0 sweep because Jrue Holiday couldn’t put the ball in the ocean for the first three quarters. On to Thanksgiving which has been a fun tradition since I started the blog back in 2015 - we classify each play as a type of Thanksgiving Day food. Let’s EAT!!
12:30 EST
DRINK of choice to start the day - Apple Cider Mimosa/Cinnamon Bourbon Smash/Beer/Wine/Soda/Water 🍹🥃🍺
Whatever refreshment you prefer, this is the one we are going to start the day with. It’s an enjoyable way to start the day and we won’t let is spoil the rest of the day whether it goes down good or bad. It’s a low risk high reward type of thing. If it goes well early, keep going back for more throughout the day
Anytime TD Parlay
David Montgomery
Amon-Ra St Brown
CeeDee Lamb
Christian McCaffrey
Brandon Aiyuk
(+2761)
12:30 EST
Stuffing 🍲 - David Montgomery is responsible for bringing the stuffing today and he is going to bring plenty. If this game plays out anything like the first matchup he’s going to be stuffing it down the Packers defense’s throat! 121 yards and 3 TDs in the first matchup. Yes, I’ll put some gravy on the stuffing while we are at it.
Player Prop
David Montgomery Rushing Yards Over (66.5)
The Packers are one of the worst run defenses in the league ranking 28th and they have allowed opponents to average 134.7 rushing yards per game.
Montgomery had a massive game against them in the first meeting when he racked up 121 yards on 32 carries averaging 3.8 yards per carry and had 3 touchdowns in that game.
He has gone over 66.5 rushing yards in 6 of his 7 games this season and the game he went under was when he got hurt and only had 6 carries.
LOVE this play today!
4:30 EST
Mashed Potatoes 🥔 🧈 - A sure thing, a guarantee some would say. The mashed potatoes are a comfort food and this Anytime TD play feels like a comfort play with the way Lamb has been playing. Gravy on the mashed potatoes is a given as well.
Player Prop
CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (-105)
The Cowboys are massive favorites in this game at home today but we should see a touchdown from CeeDee today.
The Commanders have struggled against the pass (30th) and have allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers (15) this season.
CeeDee has scored 4 touchdowns in his last 4 games and he scored in both games against Washington last season.
4:30 EST
2 DAY TURKEY / TURKEY LEG & LEFTOVERS - BIG ONE 3 UNIT 🍗 🦃
The turkey leg is a staple of Thanksgiving and so are leftovers and that’s exactly what we have with this one. We start it off with the turkey leg today betting big on a couple big favorites to win straight up….it’s basically a sure thing like the turkey leg and it gives us the comfort while we watch these games play out. Then tomorrow we have the leftovers with the Dolphins which will be just as good as the first round of food today even if it stays in the microwave too long.
Parlay
Cowboys ML / Ole Miss ML / Dolphins ML (-142)
The Cowboys are favored by 2 touchdowns today at home but we only need them to win straight up for this parlay which feels pretty good. The Commanders have played some competitive games but they are just 2-7 over their last 9. Their pass defense is not good and this Cowboys offense should be able to take advantage - Dak has had 404, 374, & 304 yard games in recent weeks so look for another big one leading to a Cowboys win.
Ole Miss is favored by 10 tonight and we just need them to win. They are the better team by far in this rivalry matchup. Ole Miss is #12 and Miss St has been blown out by both ranked opponents they have faced this season 41-14 and 40-17. Lane Kiffin wants the 10 win season as well.
Then on to tomorrow with the Dolphins hosting the Jets. The Jets had some hope they were holding their season together and Aaron Rodgers was going to miraculously come back but they have lost 3 in a row including the 32-6 loss to the Bills last week and the wheels have fallen off. On the flip side, the Dolphins are a top team in the AFC and they are a perfect 5-0 at home despite the shaky one last week that was part of our BIG BET. Let’s ride them at home in the first ever Black Friday NFL game!
8:20 EST
Pumpkin Pie 🥧 - I hope you saved room for dessert because Auntie’s Pumpkin pie is great every year and even if it’s not, she’ll be offended if you don’t have a slice so we are eating it. Put a little extra whip cream on it as always.
Player Prop
Brock Purdy Passing Yards Over (251.5)
Purdy has been lighting it up through the air coming off of a 333 point game and he’s gone over 251.5 in 7 of his last 8 games
The Seahawks haven’t been great defending the pass this season, they’ve allowed Goff to throw for 323, Dalton to throw for 361, and Howell to throw for 312.
The game is in Seattle so there is going to be some wind in the forecast but 251.5 seems attainable for Purdy in this matchup.
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