Thursday Night Football Player Props: Packers vs Commanders
- Kof
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
The second week of the NFL season brings us an NFC showdown on Thursday Night Football on Prime as the Green Bay Packers take on the Washington Commanders. Both teams are coming off Week 1 wins that showcased very different strengths.
Packers: Green Bay dismantled the Detroit Lions, dominating the trenches and holding Detroit’s talented RB duo to just 46 rushing yards while piling up big plays on offense.
Commanders: Washington earned a gritty win behind their defense, limiting their opponent to just 157 passing yards while establishing balance on the ground with their run game.
This matchup looks like a battle of strengths, and when we dig into the player props, the numbers tell us where the value lies.
Step 1: How Defenses Are Performing
I always like to start by checking how defenses are performing against the run and pass before locking in player props. Here’s what stands out:
Run Defense
Green Bay Packers: #1 run defense in Week 1 (46 yards allowed vs Detroit’s strong RB duo). Blowout helped, but they also ranked 7th last season (103 YPG).
Washington Commanders: #10 run defense in Week 1 (74 yards allowed). But this was after finishing 31st last year (143.4 YPG). Big improvement? Or small sample size?
Pass Defense
Green Bay Packers: Ranked 18th in Week 1 (200 yards allowed), but were 8th last season (209 YPG).
Washington Commanders: #10 in Week 1 (157 yards allowed), after ranking 5th last season (197 YPG).
Takeaway: Passing is going to be tough for both teams. But I don’t fully buy into Washington suddenly becoming a top-10 run defense after being second-worst in the league last year. That’s where we find our edge.
Thursday Night Football Player Props: Packers vs Commanders
Best Player Prop #1: Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Over (76.5)
Josh Jacobs is the centerpiece of Green Bay’s ground game, and this number looks too low given the matchup and usage.
Went over 76.5 rushing yards in 5 of his first 7 home games last year.
Washington allowed 143 rushing yards per game in 2024 (31st in NFL).
Even if they’ve improved, Jacobs’ workload as RB1 puts him in the 18–22 range for carries in this game.
The Packers will likely try establishing the run early and often in this game to hopefully create openings for the passing game against this strong Commanders pass defense.
✅ Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 76.5 rushing yards
Best Player Prop #2: Terry McLaurin Receptions Over (4.5)
With passing lanes limited for both sides, Washington’s best chance is targeting their WR1. McLaurin’s role is as steady as it gets:
Averaged 7 targets per game and 4.8 receptions per game in 2024.
Went over 4.5 receptions in 9 of final 12 games of the regular season last season.
Green Bay just allowed 4+ catches to 5 Detroit players last week — McLaurin should see similar volume.
✅ Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 4.5 Receptions at +102 odds
Conclusion – Packers vs Commanders Props
This game looks like an old-school NFC battle — strong defenses, limited passing opportunities, and a focus on running the football. That makes Josh Jacobs Over 76.5 rushing yards our top play, with Terry McLaurin Over 4.5 receptions as another sharp angle.
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