Another 1-2 night last night with the Knicks teasing us a few times but not getting it done and then Kevin Durant being the odd man out of the big three for the Suns last night. We are still up about a half unit on the week going into the weekend and up 4 units since last Friday so I’m feeling good going into the weekend. Some nice trends we have going for us are:
13-2 on College Hoops (87%)
6-1 last 7 NBA Player Props (86%)
Oh yeah…..ONE more I should mention
7-2 last 9 plays to end the NFL regular season (78%) and 14-6 last 20 NFL plays (70%)
Let’s LOCK in and have ourselves a big weekend!
NBA:
7:00 EST
Hawks / Pacers Over (251.5)
We took this same play last Friday but the number was 10.5 points higher.
The Hawks decided they didn’t want to make shots in that game and it STILL went over with the Pacers winning 150-116.
Tyrese Haliburton is out for the Pacers and they went way under in their one game without him this week but he only had 10 points last Friday when the Pacers dropped the 150 piece.
Now we can get into my recycled part of the write up from last week:
These teams are so focused on offense (and good at it) that they literally don’t give a fuck about playing defense. They’d rather just run and gun and outscore their opponents and that lines up for a ton of points tonight.
These two have played each other twice this season and they’ve scored 309 points and 266.
Take the over.
8:00 EST
Player Prop
Ivica Zubac Points Over (11.5)
It can be risky taking Clippers player props because they’ve been blowing a lot of teams out and tonight could definitely turn into a blowout with the Grizzlies missing Ja Morant and Marcus Smart.
However, I see value on Zubac as I’m projecting him for 14+ tonight.
He’s gone over 11.5 points in 7 of his last 10 games and he’s averaging 15 ppg over his last 5.
Looking back to the last time the Clippers faced the Grizzlies on 12/29, Zubac had 15 points in a 117-106 game.
2 DAY JACKHAMMER
Clippers ML / Chiefs ML (-120)
It’s a 2 day hammer that starts tonight and will finish up tomorrow but this one will be worth the wait!
The Clippers start it off tonight against the Grizzlies who will be without Ja Morant and Marcus Smart who have been 2 of their top 4 scorers this season.
The Clippers are healthy and they continue to roll winning 17 of their last 21.
The Clippers beat the Grizzlies 117-106 in their most recent meeting on 12/29 and that was WITH Ja and Smart combining for 41 points.
The Chiefs were not good to us in big plays multiple times this season, from the Opening Night debacle of catching wide open passes, to the Mahomes flu game in Denver where they didn’t score a touchdown, to the Christmas MAX bet L to the Raiders - I will never forgive them for that.
BUT they have the Miami Dolphins coming to town and it’s going to be 0 fucking degrees out. The Miami offense isn’t built to operate in the cold. It’s like if you try running your electric smoker in the cold, it doesn’t even start.
On top of that obvious x factor, the Dolphins went 1-5 against teams with winning records this season including the Chiefs who were up 21-0 at halftime in their game in Germany.
TUA is 0-5 in the 5 coldest games in his career. He is 6-13 in games under 70 degrees and 23-4 in games over 70 degrees. It’s really hard to throw deep balls when you can’t feel your hands.
I trust Kansas City to play a balanced offense in the cold weather. I also like the Chiefs #2 ranked defense a lot better than the Miami #22 ranked defense.
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