We’ve got some momentum going into today just like we planned on by going 4-0 the last 2 days with a 2 unit plus money play. Now we try to top the Saturday we had last week for NFL Playoffs and I’m feeling good about it! Koooooofsports!!
NFL:
4:30 EST
Teaser 6 Point
Texans / Chiefs Over (35.5) / Lions (-2.5)
Texans and Chiefs went over 35.5 in their game a few weeks ago with 46. Both teams were successful on third down (54%) which allowed them to extend drives and I expect that again today. 24-14 would work perfectly.
Lions will be home against the Commanders and the major mismatch in this game is the Commanders 27th ranked run defense vs Gibbs and Montgomery. The Lions also had a BYE week last week while the Commanders played a tough game vs the Bucs, yes they won but that game took a lot of physicality and energy.
4:30 EST
Alt Line Parlay
Joe Mixon 50+ Rush Yds / Jahmyr Gibbs 50+ Rush Yds (-118)
Mixon has an ankle injury he’s dealing with but a shot to the ankle pregame and he will be good to go. The only way Mixon doesn’t get 50 rushing yards is if this game turns into a blowout early like 21-0 in the first because the Texans will abandon the run game. Mixon had 106 last week even though the cover came late.
Gibbs has a dream matchup vs the Commanders and their 27th ranked run defense. He’s hit 50+ rushing yards in 14 of his 17 games this season (82% trend)
4:30 EST
Player Prop
DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Over (2.5) 💪
It’s -160 but we are betting this one strong to make up for the juice.
Hopkins has gone over 2.5 receptions in 8 straight games including a game vs the Texans on 12/21 where he made us money on the same prop.
The Texans D allowed 9 receptions to Ladd McConkey last week.
The Chiefs brought Hopkins in for the playoffs and for a chance to 3 peat.
Low Risk High Reward
(Not intended to be a full 1 unit play example if you bet $100 per bet, this should be like a $5 or $10 FUNZEY)
4:30 EST
Noah Gray First TD / Jahmyr Gibbs First TD (105 to 1 odds)
Anytime TD Scorers (ranked in order of confidence)
Jahmyr Gibbs
Saquon Barkley
Derrick Henry
Parlay pays (+235) not a lotto but seems like good odds for some very likely TD Scorers