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VIP Picks 1/21/24

3-2 yesterday with the added 49ers & Bruins play for 2 unit. I can't believe Kansas lost and we only missed the Likely prop by 3 yards. We will take the winning day but we are due for an undefeated sweep so let's go for that today to close the week!


NFL:

3:00 EST

Teaser 7 Point

Bucs / Lions Over (42.5) / Chiefs / Bills Over (38.5)

  • Maybe a little ballsy going for an overs teaser in the Divisional Round but I like the numbers.

  • The Bucs & Lions offenses have the ability to put up points fast, they’ve scored 30+ in 6 of their last 10 combined. 

  • I believe the Bucs will attack the Lions 28th ranked pass defense and then the Lions offense will be forced to respond which could turn this game into a shootout.

  • Perfect weather conditions in the dome 

  • The Chiefs & Bills went under 38.5 in their regular season matchup but they’ve combined to score 20+ each in 4 of their last 5 games.

  • 5 of the 6 head to head matchups of Allen vs Mahomes have gone over 38.5 and they had 37 in the 1 game that went under.

  • I expect a good game from them and respect both defenses but I do feel good about the offenses combining for 38+ points.


3:00 EST

Player Prop

David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown (-120)

  • Death, taxes, & David Montgomery Anytime Touchdowns are the only 3 guaranteed things in life.

  • Montgomery has 14 touchdowns this season and he’s scored in 12 of his 15 games played.

  • The Bucs have a solid run defense (4th) but the Lions will be able to move the ball through the air and then pound it in with Montgomery down in the Red Zone.

  • I also expect a lot of offense in this game which should increase our chances for this one.


6:30 EST

Bills (-142)

  • In this day and age with the way teams go for 2, let’s go moneyline here to avoid the points. This game will likely be a close one.

  • The Bills won the regular season matchup 20-17 in the famous offsides call game. That game honestly turned around the Bills season and they haven’t lost since then.

  • The Chiefs have got the best of the Bills in the playoffs in recent years but those games have been in KC. Today will be Mahomes first road playoff game ever.

  • The Chiefs haven’t been the normal Chiefs that we have known with Mahomes, they’ve made mistake after mistake losing to teams they shouldn’t or letting teams hang around who they should handle.

  • I think the Bills have a lot of momentum going down the stretch and we’ve seen the Chiefs offense struggle on the road all season. This environment will be electric and I like the Bills at home. 


NBA:

3:30 EST

Parlay

Clippers ML / Nuggets ML / Celtics ML (-196) - JACKHAMMER 3 UNIT

  • I know everyone wants a jackhammer on NFL today but this is the surest bet of the week with these three big favorites playing weak competition. Big juice but we are betting big to make up for it. 3 units to win 1.54.

  • Clippers are 17-4 at home this season and 8-2 over their last 10 while the Nets are 2-8 over their last 10. The Clippers aren’t a bunch of bitches like the cross town rivals who cost us our parlay on Friday.

  • The Nuggets will be facing the 7-34 Wizards. No way Denver loses this game.

  • The Celtics will face the Rocketsvwho they just beat by 32 a little over a week ago.

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