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VIP Picks 1/28/24

We had such a good start to the week 6-1 and now we are down 1 to 2 units on the week depending on what you played. So it all comes down to Championship Sunday to decide a winning week or not, I’ll take that pressure! It's all about football today, let’s take some good ones.

3:00 EST

Teaser 7 Pt

Chiefs (+11.5) / Lions (+14)

  • Wooo talk about a couple cushions in the Conference Championships. How does this one lose!?

  • The Chiefs showed the ability to go on the road and win in the playoffs for the first time in Mahomes career last week.

  • They are the defending champs and Mahomes is 11-2 in AFC Playoff games with both of those losses coming by less than a touchdown.

  • The Ravens have been a level above everyone in the AFC but I do trust Mahomes to keep it close. I am also factoring in the Taylor Swift effect. 

  • The Lions will be on the road looking to continue the magical season.

  • They have had scares in the first two playoff games but have come away with wins.

  • I love the Lions offense but a key factor in this game with be their 2nd ranked run defense which should force Brock Purdy to throw the ball and we saw him missing last week which could definitely lead to mistakes and turnovers today.

  • 8 the last 11 Conference Championship games have been decided by 10 points or less so we can feel pretty good about the cushions today.

3:00 EST

Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+125)

  • Speaking of the Taylor Swift effect, we have Kelce. And there’s a lot of talk around their fling but he’s been scoring in the playoffs way before she’s been cheering and acting like she knows football.

  • Kelce has scored at least 1 touchdown in 12 of his last 15 playoff games.

  • He had 2 last week.

  • Mahomes is going to look to him like he always has on the big stage.

  • Plus money for this is absurd value. 

3:00 EST

Alt Line Parlay

Pat Mahomes 200+ Passing Yards / Jared Goff 225+ Passing Yards (-125)

  • We are parlaying these alternate lines today for -125

  • Mahomes has thrown for 200+ yards in 16 of his 18 games this season. As an underdog, he will likely have to throw the ball to keep up with this Ravens offense.

  • Jared Goff has thrown for 287 and 277 in his first 2 playoff games as well as 225+ in 16 of his 19 games this season.

  • Both defense have been good against the pass with BAL ranking 5th and SF ranking 13th but we still feel good about these alt lines.

  • The weather looks ok for the most part with a chance of showers during the Chiefs game.

6:30 EST

Player Prop

George Kittle Receiving Yards Over (58.5)

  • First off, the Lions defense was the second worst in the league this season. They’ve allowed 716 passing yards in 2 playoff games and snuck by with wins in both. 

  • Kittle has gone over 58.5 in 8 of his last 11 games.

  • He’s had 81 and 95 yards in his last 2 playoff games with Purdy. 

  • Look for him to go over 58.5 for us today. 

** If Kelce and Mahomes hit or look good in the 3rd quarter, I will look to add 1 more player prop for the NFC Game.

Low Risk High Reward Anytime TD Parlay

  • Pacheco

  • Kelce

  • Odell Beckham Jr

  • McCaffrey

  • Kittle

  • Gibbs

  • LaPorta

630 - 1 odds


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