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VIP Picks 1/5/24

3-2 night not terrible but I really wanted to go 5-0 on the first Thursday without Thursday Night Football to make a statement. We will take the winning night and we are on to Friday. Let’s focus on some high percentage plays to stay wins up to kick off the weekend!



CBB:

UConn (-5)

  • Both teams come in with respectable records with UConn at 12-2 and Butler at 10-4 but these teams are simply not on the same level.

  • UConn is 4th in the country and they already have quality wins over #10 Gonzaga, #9 North Carolina, and #15 Texas.

  • Butler has gone 0-2 against ranked opponents and those teams aren’t on the level that UConn is. Butler lost by 20 to Michigan State and by 5 to Florida Atlantic.

  • Another common opponent check in is that UConn just beat Saint John’s by 4 and Butler lost to St John’s by 16 right after that.

  • I expect UConn to roll in this game tonight so let’s take them to cover. HUSKIES!!


NBA:

7:00 EST

Hawks / Pacers Over (262)

  • I learned my lesson by taking the under on the historically high line the other night. We are going with the history tonight and taking the over.

  • These teams are so focused on offense (and good at it) that they literally don’t give a fuck about playing defense. They’d rather just run and gun and outscore their opponents and that lines up for a ton of points tonight.

  • These two played each other earlier this season and dropped 309 points with the Pacers winning 157 to 152.

  • Take the over.


7:00 EST

Player Prop

Collin Sexton Points Over (15.5)

  • This one was an instant take for me when I saw the trends, he has gone over 15.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

  • He’s also averaged 5.6 more ppg than where the line is at tonight during that stretch.

  • I don’t watch or follow the Jazz much so I took a deeper look to make sure that their other top scorers like Markkanen and Clarkson have been playing during those games and they have been.

  • I think one factor that the line is low might be that the spread is -13.5 tonight so if the Jazz are getting blown out by the Celtics then Sexton might get taken out of the game early. But honestly, the Celtics have let some bad teams hang around this season and the Jazz have been playing pretty good lately so I think this is a great spot for Sexton tonight.

  • The over under is 238.5 in this game so it should be high scoring. 


7:00 EST

Alt Line Parlay Points

Cade Cunningham 20+ / Tyrese Haliburton 20+ / LeBron James 20+ (-138)

  • We haven’t done one of these for a while but I got to looking and I feel pretty fucking good about this one tonight

  • Cunningham has been on a tear scoring 20+ in 8 of his last 9 games and he’s actually had 30+ in 4 of his last 5.

  • Haliburton is playing in that game with the historic over under so he should score plenty of points. He’s scored 20+ in 6 straight games and he’s averaging 24.9 ppg on the season.

  • LeBron is questionable like every game but it’s an ESPN Friday Night game so chances are he’s going to play. He’s coming off of a stinker of a game but he’s scored 20+ in 10 of his last 13 games.

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