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VIP Picks 10/1/23

HAPPY OCTOBER! It's going to be an Octoberfest of betting for us with NFL heating up, College Football, MLB Playoffs, NHL and NBA coming back. Cheers boys! Let's have another GREAT NFL Sunday!


1:00 EST


Eagles ML / Chiefs ML (-191) - JACKHAMMER 3 UNIT

  • Big juice but we are betting this one big to make up for it

  • The Eagles come in 3-0 and they will take on a Commanders team who is coming off of an absolute ass whooping (37-3)

  • The Eagles defense took a big step forward last week and they should turn in another strong performance against this Commanders team who could only score 3 points last week

  • The Chiefs are playing against Zach Wilson and it’s bet against Zach Wilson season.

  • He can’t keep up with Mahomes. Simple as that. The Jets season will continue to slip as long as they keep him at QB.

  • NY allowed 30 points to the Cowboys two weeks ago so I’m confident in Mahomes and CO to score plenty to win in this game.

  • The Jets have only been able to score 10 points in each of their last 2 games with Wilson at QB.

1:00 EST


Vikings ML / Chargers ML (-101)

  • The Vikings are 0-3 but all 3 games have been competitive for them and the last two weeks were against good Eagles and Chargers teams.

  • They will go on the road to face another 0-3 team in Carolina today and Bryce Young is likely back at QB - he has struggled in his first 2 games completing just 59% of his passes and throwing 2 interceptions as well as averaging just 13.5 ppg.

  • The Vikings come in with the #2 ranked passing attack in the league and they are going to line up to throw it over and over again. This Panthers pass defense looks good on paper but they haven’t faced a passing attack like the Vikings yet so they will be tested.

  • The offense hasn’t been the issue for the Vikings, it’s the defense. I’m not super confident in them but I am more confident that Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense can outscore Bryce Young OR Andy Dalton and the Panthers offense.

  • The Chargers finally got a win last week but they’ve played 3 very competitive games.

  • The Raiders are banged up and they are going to be without starting QB Jimmy G

  • The Chargers defense has struggled vs the pass but they’ve faced Tua and Kirk. Brian Hoyer or a Rookie QB won’t be tearing them up today

  • The Chargers should have the edge on offense averaging 437 to 298 yards per game.

  • It's also a critical game for the Chargers to get the win to get back to .500 on the season as well as win their first Divisional game vs a short handed opponent.

1:00 EST

Player Prop

D’Andre Swift Rushing Yards Over (66.5)

  • Swift has ran for 130 & 175 the last 2 weeks! He’s averaging 6.8 yards per carry on the season.

  • It’s not a very good Commanders run defense who he will be up against today who have allowed 128.7 rushing yards per game

  • The Commanders allowed James Cook to run for 98 yards and Bijan Robinson to run for 87 the last two weeks.

  • Gainwell is back but Swift seems to be taking over in Philly, let’s take him to have another BIG game today

1:00 EST

Player Prop

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Over (69.5)

  • He’s gone under this number in 2 of his 3 games but this number is just too low.

  • Keep in mind that he has faced two Top 10 run defenses in those 2 games that he went under 69.5

  • He’s got a much better matchup today against a Bengals defense that has allowed and average of 151.7 rushing yards per game which ranks 29th in the league

  • King Henry only went under this number 4 times in 16 games last season

  • He got off to a “slowish” start in the first three weeks last season before reeling off 5 straight 100+ yard games

  • The Ravens and Browns ran all over this Bengals defense and I think we will see Henry have a huge game today. I’m taking over 69.5 but I’m not going to be surprised to see him go over 100 which you can get at +255 if you want to chase it.

1:00 EST

Player Prop

Tyreek Hill Receptions Over (6.5)

  • The numbers say to take the over

  • He’s had 25 catches on 35 targets through 3 games this season

  • He had 7 catches on 15 targets at Buffalo in the playoffs last year and 9 catches on 13 targets at Buffalo in the regular season last year

  • This game has the highest over under for the week so we can expect offense and you know Hill is going to be involved as much as the Bills try to shut him down, it ain’t that easy.

4:25 EST

Player Prop

Ezekiel Elliot Rushing Yards Over (29.5)

  • Zeke returns home to face the only other team he’s played for in his NFL career for 7 seasons

  • He had his season high in carries and yards last week with 16 and 80. Obviously the rainy conditions factored into that.

  • HOWEVER, seeing how the Cardinals ran for 222 yards on the Cowboys last week, I think we can expect the Patriots to take a similar game plan today.

  • I booked this Zeke Revenge Game ticket on Tuesday at 27.5 but 29.5 is still a must play today. He's gonna eat.


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