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VIP Picks 10/11/23

MLB Straight Plays stay red hot with the Astros winning as underdogs at +118 and the Rangers winning in a blowout backed by another dominant start by Nathan Eovaldi. You guys who follow on Twitter also got in on a Corey Seager walk at +130. He had 7 walks in the first 2 games of the series and then he got walked 2 more times last night after hitting a homerun in his first at bat. Hockey was shit with the Penguins going down as -250 favorites to spoil the 2 day parlay but we will take the winning day. On to hump day!

MLB Playoff Straight Plays = 11-1 (92%)


7:07 EST

Astros / Twins Over (8)

  • There have been 8+ runs in all 3 games in this series with run totals of 10, 8, & 10. I’m not sure what the books are thinking with this line at 8 but I don’t ask questions, I just take the easy wins in the playoffs.

  • Jose Urquidy is pitching for the Astros and he’s had a weird season with ups and downs along the way but this Twins lineup comes in hitting .324 against him.

  • Urquidy didn’t start a game in the playoffs last year but looking back to 2021, he had an 8.22 ERA in the playoffs in 3 games pitched.

  • Joe Ryan will pitch for the Twins and he was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half of the year starting 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA as of May 24 but then the weather heated up and hitters started hitting him harder which pushed his numbers up to 11-10 and 4.51 ERA to finish the season.

  • The Astros faced him twice this season and scored 5 runs in 4 innings and 4 runs in 6 innings against him.

9:07 EST

Dodgers (Lynn) (-126) - 2 Units

  • The Dodgers have been flat AF in the first 2 games of this series but getting down 9-0 combined in the first inning of those games has really set the tone.

  • The DBacks are red hot right now, they have ALL of the momentum, but they are sending Brandon Pfaadt to the mound tonight and that’s exactly what the Dodgers need to get going.

  • Pfaadt went 3-9 this season with a 5.72 ERA. He went 0-2 vs the Dodgers and allowed 10 runs in 8.2 innings against them. LA comes in hitting .381 with a .714 slugging percentage against him which is insanely good.

  • Lance Lynn will pitch for the Dodgers and all he needs to do is not put the ball on a tee in the first inning like Kershaw and Miller did in the first 2 games.

  • Lynn was traded to the Dodgers at the end of July and they went 9-2 in games he started since then. He also allowed 3 runs or less in all 9 of those wins. Lynn has held this DBacks lineup to a .200 avg in 50 at bats.

  • There’s also reverse line movement on this game which looks like the books are trying to spook people off of betting on the Dodgers. 55% of bets & 68% of money are on the Dodgers but the line has dropped from -148 to -126. It doesn’t add up.


10:00 EST

1st Period Goals

Canucks / Oilers Over (1.5)

  • Juicy at -166 but well worth the squeeze

  • These two teams went over 1.5 goals in all 3 head to head matchups last season

  • Both of these teams ranked in the Top 10 in 1st period scoring last season as well with the Canucks scoring 71.8% and the Oilers scoring 57.1%.

  • Thatcher Demko will likely be in net for the Canucks & 8 of his final 10 games went over in the 1st period last season.

  • Stuart Skinner is the likely starter for the Oilers & 8 of his final 10 games in the regular season went over 1.5 in the 1st period last season.

  • So yeah, we are playing the juice here but the trends are screaming over 1.5 in the 1st.


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