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VIP Picks 10/12/23

Lance fucking Lynn just serving it up - 4 homeruns in 1 inning for the first time in Postseason history. The Dodgers bats didn’t do much either but they had their chances late. We lost both MLB plays last night plus the Dodgers series bet so it was a rough night. On the bright side, we did hit our Oilers and Canucks 1st period over for our first winner on the NHL season. On to Thursday where we need some winners after last night so let’s get these high percentage plays and drink some of the juice.


MLB:

8:07 EST

Braves / Phillies Under (8.5)

  • We had this same pitching matchup in Game 1 and it resulted in a 3-0 final score.

  • Spencer Strider will pitch for the Braves and he has been dominant against this Phillies lineup - he’s pitched 6+ innings and allowed 3 or less runs in 5 of his 5 starts against them this season. Long term he’s held them to a .176 avg in a huge sample size of 17- at bats.

  • Ranger Suarez will pitch for the Phillies and he got pulled after 3.1 innings in Game 1 but he only allowed 1 hit, he just got in a jam in the 4th inning.

  • Suarez had 1 start against the Braves in the regular season and he went 6 innings only allowing 1 run.

  • I expect both starters to go deep into this game and it should result in a low scoring game.


Cross Sport:

8:20 EST

Parlay

Chiefs ML / Golden Knights ML (-158)

  • The Chiefs are favored by 2 scores tonight and the Broncos have been a disaster both defensively and offensively. Denver ranks 32nd against the run and 29th against the pass so it is going to be impossible for them to stop the Chiefs offense that has averaged 25.6 ppg

  • This Broncos defense gave up a 70 piece to the Dolphins a few weeks ago.

  • Mahomes is 11-0 against the Broncos in his career, I trust him to make it 12-0 especially with how bad their defense has been.

  • Then we have the Golden Knights who started their season 1-0 with a 4-1 win over a good Kraken team.

  • They will go on the road to face the Sharks who were one of the worst teams in the league last year. They are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league again this season after trading their best player in the offseason.

  • Kappa Kahkonen will be in net for the Sharks and he went 4-16 over his final 20 games of the regular season last year.


NFL:

8:20 EST

Same Game Parlay

Pat Mahomes Alt Passing 225+ / Russell Wilson Alt Passing 200+ (-126)

  • I think Mahomes will come out of the gate throwing all over this 29th ranked pass defense and then Russell Wilson will be playing from behind all night so he should have to throw the ball plenty.

  • Mahomes has thrown for 225+ in 4 of his 5 games this season (80%) & he threw for 352 & 328 on this Broncos defense last season. Kelce is hurt but this is a great opportunity for the Chiefs to get things going with their receivers who have under performed to this point in the season.

  • Russell Wilson has been a disaster for the Broncos but he’s been able to throw for 200+ in 3 of his last 4 and he just missed it by 4 yards last week.

  • Chiefs are projected to win big which I think they will but that lines up nicely for this alternate passing yard same game parlay


8:20 EST

Player Prop

Kadarius Toney Receptions Over (2.5)

  • I always enjoy revenge plays and this is one of them. You guys who were around on Opening Night remember when Toney was dropping balls left and right to cost us not 1 but 2 plays that night!

  • He has doubled this number in 2 of his last 4 games including 5 catches on 6 targets last week.

  • The Broncos defense is brutal against the pass allowing opponents to grab 24 receptions per game.

  • Toney went 4 for 4 for 71 yards in his only meeting against the Broncos last season

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