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VIP Picks 10/16/23

What a brutal Sunday! It seemed like there were strings being pulled in each game to keep us from hitting our plays.


MLB:

4:37 EST

Astros (Valdez) (-120)

  • Call me to crazy to bet against Eovaldi right now, no one has given him more praise than I have to start the Postseason but this Houston lineup has hit him hard time and time again over the last few years and throughout his career.

  • The Astros come in with a .313 avg in a huge sample size of 162 at bats against him.

  • They scored 4 runs in 1.1 innings against him last time they faced him on 9/5 in a 14-1 win, they scored 6 runs in 1.2 innings against him on 5/17/22 in a 13-4 win, he gave up 8 runs in 10.1 innings against them in the playoffs in 2021, & he gave up 5 runs in 5.2 innings on 6/9/21. It’s not to say that he hasn’t mixed in some good starts since then but he’s consistently been hit hard by this lineup.

  • Framber Valdez will pitch for the Astros & he’s coming off of a bad start where he gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings but he held this Rangers lineup to 1 run in 7 innings the last time he faced them. He also has a 2.47 ERA in 8 starts against the Rangers since the beginning of last season.

  • The team who has lost Game 1 has bounced back with a win in Game 2 in 3 of the last 5 ALCS Series. I expect Houston to do that again today.


8:07 EST

Team Total

DBacks Over (2.5)

  • The DBacks have gone over 2.5 runs scored in all 5 of their playoff games and have averaged 6 runs per game which is double what they need to cover this line tonight.

  • Zack Wheeler isn’t an easy matchup, he’sonly allowed 4 runs in 2 starts so far in the Postseason but this DBacks lineup actually has good numbers against him.

  • Overall they come in hitting .328 but the top five hitters are hitting a whopping .396 against Wheeler.

  • I know it’s the playoffs and the narrative is that runs come at a premium, I know gametime temp is 54 degrees which will be cold for the Arizona boys but this bet seems like a really good one.


NFL:

8:15 EST

Cowboys (-126)

  • The Cowboys were embarrassed last week losing 42-10 against the 49ers and they have also lost back to back road games. They will be on the road against the Chargers tonight but I’m thinking we back the Cowboys in a bounce back spot.

  • Dak hasn’t really got anything going through the air this season but he should be able to pick apart this Chargers pass defense that ranks last in the league.

  • The Cowboys defense looked horrible last week and they will be without a couple key pieces due to injury tonight.

  • The Chargers are rested coming off of a BYE and are getting Austin Ekeler back from injury. But still, the Chargers aren’t the 49ers. They didn’t even score in the 2nd half against the Raiders, they barely beat a bad Vikings team, and they lost to a bad Titans team over their last 3 games.

  • The Cowboys haven’t played in a close game this season, they’ve all been decided by two or more scores with 3 dominant wins and 2 ugly losses.

  • I know the Cowboys shorthanded defense might struggle a bit at times but I just think Dak will come back firing against the worst ranked Chargers defense and will be able to get the win in a bounce back spot.

  • Let’s put it this way, if this game was before this 49ers loss, the Cowboys would be favored by -6.5. I think they are the better team and will get the win for us tonight.

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