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VIP Picks 10/17/23

Good to bounce back with a 2-1 winning day but it would have been a nice 3-0 night if it wasn’t for Framber Valdez fucking up left and right early or the Astros not being able to score with bases loaded and no outs.



MLB:

8:08 EST

Phillies (Nola) (-156)

  • Two thoughts - I’m not betting against Philly at home (5-0) in the playoffs and I’m hesitant to take the -1.5 against a DBacks team who lost their first game of the playoffs last night after running through two division winners like a hot knife through butter.

  • Merrill Kelly will start on the mound for the DBacks and this Philly lineup comes in hitting .288 against him. Kelly also hasn’t pitched in a game in 10 days which is off from the standard 5 day rotation during the regular season.

  • Aaron Nola will pitch for Philly and he’s 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in the playoffs. He’s held this DBacks lineup to a .255 avg in 55 at bats. He pitched 6.2 innings with 9 strikeouts in a win against the DBacks the only time he faced them this season.


8:08 EST

Player Prop Hit Parlay

Trea Turner / Corbin Carroll (-105)

  • Turner has hit safely in all 7 playoff games and he’s recorded multiple hits in 5 of those 7 including 8 hits in his last 3.

  • He has great numbers against Merrill Kelly from his time with the Dodgers and comes in hitting .429 against him (9 for 21)

  • Corbin Carroll has hit safely in 5 of his 6 playoff games including Game 1 last night. He also puts the ball in play a lot with only 3 strikeouts in 21 playoff at bats.

  • He doesn’t have much history against Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola but he has put the ball in play in 5 of his 6 career at bats against him.


NHL:

10:00 EST

Avalanche / Kraken Under (6.5)

  • The Kraken have only scored 1 goal through their first 2 games and the Avs are coming off of a 2-1 game against the Sharks.

  • These teams went under 6.5 in 9 of their 10 games last year - 6 of 7 in the playoffs and 3 of 3 in the regular season.

  • Alexander Georgiev will be in net for the Avs who is 2-0 with a 1.45 goals against average

  • I’d expect Philipp Grubauer for the Kraken but he hasn’t been confirmed as the starter yet - he’s 0-2 with a 2.55 goals against average. I’d prefer to see him confirmed before locking in the bet.

  • If for some reason it’s Daccord in net then I will quickly shift to lock in Avalanche moneyline as quickly as possible.

  • I get my starting goalie info from Daily Faceoff so you can check there as the day goes on.

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