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VIP Picks 10/30/23

Never forget the time Pat Mahomes had the flu and couldn’t score a single touchdown in his first ever loss to the Broncos. Other than that, the plays were pretty good yesterday. On to Monday where we have the sports equinox with at least one game from every major sport league - NFL, MLB, NBA, & NHL. Let’s take a look at the best bets for tonight.


MLB:

8:04 EST

DBacks (Pfaadt) (-104)

  • If you told me on Opening Day of this year that I would be betting on Brandon Pfaadt over Max Scherzer in Game 3 of the World Series I would have called you crazy but here we are and here’s how we got here.

  • Scherzer missed the final month of the regular season due to injury and he hasn’t been good since returning in the playoffs - 9.45 ERA in 6.2 innings pitched.

  • The Diamondbacks bats had 16 fucking hits in Game 2 so they should be confident at the plate against Scherzer who has been struggling. The only question is how long of a leash he will have if they get to him early.

  • Brandon Pfaadt will pitch for the DBacks and he has been DEALING, he’s only allowed 2 runs in his last 14 innings pitched including his Game 7 start on the road vs a great Phillies lineup. He also has 16 strikeouts in his last 2 games.

  • Pfaadt has shut down the Phillies and Dodgers in previous Postseason starts so he should be up for the task against another top lineup in the Rangers tonight.

  • Hard to pass up on a slight underdog who’s been tearing the cover off of the ball going vs a struggling pitcher and also backed by a young stud who’s been pitching great.

  • Let’s go DBacks CHH CHH CHH!


Cross Sport:

Parlay

7:00 EST

Celtics ML / Lions ML (-182) 💪

  • Big juice but I don’t see how this one loses so bet what you want and for those of you who will complain about the juice, you can add the Golden Knights at home but the official play is Celtics/Lions STRONG

  • The Celtics are off to a 2-0 start vs better team than they will face tonight. They will visit the Wizards who are 1-1 with a win over the 0-3 Grizzlies and a loss to the Pacers who dropped 143 on them.

  • The Celtics have had stretches where they’ve looked unstoppable but they haven’t put together a full game yet. I think we will see that tonight vs this Wizards team who is really going to struggle slowing down the Celtics offense.

  • The Lions got punked by the Ravens last week but they return home and they are going up against a Raiders team who hasn’t been good on the road - they lost 38-10 vs the Bills, 24-17 vs the Chargers, & 30-12 against the Bears.

  • Jimmy G returns but he hasn’t been great - 7 touchdowns, 8 interceptions.

  • Both teams are dealing with injuries but the Lions have to be looking for a big performance at home tonight to move on from last week’s debacle. Let’s cash in on them getting the W at home.


NHL:

8:00 EST

Blue Jackets / Stars Under (6.5)

  • These two teams have gone Under 6.5 in 7 of their last 10 games combined

  • A big factor for tonight is Stars goalie Jake Oettinger who comes in rocking a 1.44 GA/G and all 4 of his games have gone under 6.

  • Elvis Merzlikins will be in net for the Blue Jackets and he’s coming in with a 2.93 GA/G

  • Both teams ranks towards the bottom of the league in scoring with 2.7 and 2.5 goals per games so this seems like a perfect recipe for an under.

NFL:

8:15 EST

Player Prop

Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards Over (69.5)

  • He’s only cleared this number once this season but that was a game where David Montgomery was OUT and he is out tonight. Gibbs had 80 rushing yards in that game.

  • Gibbs has averaged 4.9 yards per carry this season and he’s going up against the Raiders defense that has allowed 129 rushing yards per game.

  • Gibbs had his most carries the first game that Montgomery was out and the Lions were playing with a lead. I look for a similar situation to play out tonight and he should get 70+ for us.

NBA:

9:00 EST

Player Prop

Jamal Murray Three Made Over (2.5)

  • Jamal Murray three point props have been money at home dating back to last season, he has gone over 2.5 threes made in 12 of his last 13

  • Murray went over in the home Opener this season going 3 for 5 and he’s gone over 2.5 threes made in 2 of 3 games with the one game he went under being a 33 point blowout.

  • The Nuggets are favored by 8.5 tonight so there is a chance that this one could turn into a blowout which creates risk down the stretch if Murray comes out early but we have to ride the 12-1 trend in his last 13.

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