VIP Picks 10/5/25

2-2 Saturday but the JACKHAMMER hit for a profitable day! Up 5.45 units going into Sunday so a big day today caps off a HUGE first week of October!

1:00 EST

Player Prop

JK Dobbins Rushing Yards Over (51.5) - Dobbins has gone over this line in all 4 games this season with rushing yard totals of 101, 83, 78, & 63. His totals have increased every week of the season. He’s going up against an Eagles defense that has allowed 126 rushing yards per game this season. The risk is if the Eagles get out to a big lead then the Broncos will abandon the run game but I also can see the Broncos relying on the run game to manage this game and keep it close. He’s averaging 30 yards higher then where the line is at, lock it in.

1:00 EST

Cowboys (-1.5) - The Cowboys missed their sister last when they tied the Packers but that’s still a pretty good game for them. Now they get to face an 0-4 disastrous Jets team who said they are just happy to be getting paid a lot of money to play a kids game. The Cowboys scored 40 points and had the offense clicking even with CeeDee Lamb out. The Cowboys are in a better spot than the Jets right now they just need to play a little defense today and they should win this game. 

4:05 EST

Alt Line Player Prop Parlay

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 60+ Rec Yds / Quentin Johnston 40+ Rec Yds (-115) - JSN hit for us last week even after not having a catch in the first half. He’s gone 79, 96, 103, & 124 so 60+ looks to be a number he can get to. Weather looks good in Seattle so no concerns there. Johnston has averaged 84.2 receiving yards per game so he’s averaging more than double the alternate line we are taking for him today. Both these guys will probably cover their regular lines but let’s keep our Alt Line Parlay run going. 

4:25 EST

2 Day Parlay

Lions ML / Chiefs ML (-125) - The Lions are rolling on a 3 game winning streak and they are facing an embarrassing Bengals team that has been outscored 76-13 their last 2 games with their backup QB in. Outside of a blatant fix job, there’s no way the Lions lose this game. Then the Chiefs visit the Jaguars tomorrow night who are better than people think. However, the Chiefs have a lot of momentum after last week’s big win against the Ravens. Mahomes threw 4 TDs in that game and this Chiefs offense will get better as the season goes on and they get more guys back healthy. The Chiefs defense has been legit and is ranked 7th vs the #3 hardest strength of schedule so far. Both teams should win just need to be willing to wait a day for it to cash. 

MLB:

4:08 EST

Yankees (-157) - They got smoked yesterday but the Yankees are in a good spot to even up the series today. They will face a 22 year old with 3 career starts. He was good vs the Rays but gave up 4 over 4 vs the Royals. I think the Yankees bats can get to him. He’s also had 7 walks in 3 starts. Max Fried will pitch for the Yankees and he went 2-1 against the Blue Jays this season. Fried is coming off of 6.1 scoreless innings in his last start. He’s locked in and he will out the Yankees in position to win this game. 

Anytime TD Scorers

Jahmyr Gibbs (-225) - 4 TD last 3 games

Nico Collins (+150) - Ravens 2nd worst pass defense

Keenan Allen (+180) - TD in 3 of 4 games