9-2 NFL run and it would be 11-0 if Rodgers made a half way decent throw to Mike Williams and the Bills didn’t fail to run the clock out and play for overtime instead of just punting it right back in field goal position to lose. All good, my favorite play of the day was the Derrick Henry run in overtime to cover his player prop as well as set up the Ravens moneyline win! That was exciting because I was feeling like the Ravens were going to lose that game. Let’s keep the NFL run going tonight!
MLB:
4:05 EST
Tigers / Guardians NO Runs in the 1st
It’s a juicebox to start the week but I’ll take my half a unit when the line drops to -200 by game time.
Matthew Boyd is pitching for th Guardians and he is 7-1 NO runs in the 1st this season. Only one guy in the Tigers lineup has ever faced him because he used to pitch for them.
Tarik Skubal will pitch for the Tigers and he is 24-7 NO runs in the 1st this season. He also hasn’t allowed a homerun to anyone in this Guardians lineup.
Let’s cash another playoff NRI1 which we are 2-0 on to this point including Skubal’s last start last week.
7:38 EST
Yankees (Rodon) (-150)
Carlos Rodon will pitch for the Yankees tonight and he’s been great at home this season, 9-2 with a 3.11 ERA. He went 2-0 against the Royals this season and has held them to a .228 avg in over 100 at bats lifetime.
Cole Ragans only faced the Yankees once this season and only allowed 3 hits over 6 innings but one of those hits was a 2 run bomb from Soto. It only takes one, especially in a playoff game.
Seeing Ragans road record of just 4-4 and the Yankees having the starting pitching as well as bullpen advantage in this game, let’s take the Yankees to go up 2-0 in the series tonight.
NFL:
8:15 EST
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Over (58.5)
This will be the Chiefs first full game without their leading receiving Rashee Rice. In the last game when he left early, Kelce ended up finishing that game with a season high 7 catches on 9 targets for 89 yards.
The Saints defense has allowed the 5th most receiving yards to tight ends this season and that average is skewed by the famous 0 goose egg game by Kyle Pitts in their last game. Dallas Goedert had 170 yards on them the week before that. They are also ranked 24th against the pass overall this season.
Kelce really didn’t do much in his first 3 games but his numbers had a bump with Rice going down in the last game. I’ll jump on the bump here on a line that seems too low when Mahomes will have no choice but to rely on him tonight.
8:15 EST
Alvin Kamara Anytime TD (-110)
He’s got 6 touchdowns in 4 games so the odds are pretty good at -110 plus the Chiefs have allowed other high profile runningbacks to score on them like Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson who can both run and catch like Kamara.
The Chiefs do rank 7th against the run but 22nd vs the Pass so I expect the Saints to be able to move the ball on them and once they are down inside the Red Zone is where Kamara is a huge weapon with his versatility.
I’ll take the -110 odds on a guy with more touchdowns than games played.
Same Game Parlay
Travis Kelce 2 Touchdowns
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions
Alvin Kamara Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
(+2000)
Analysis:
The thought process behind this one is that Mahomes will be targeting Kelce more than he has all season with Rashee Rice out of this game and a few other guys banged up. We already saw his targets and results go up last week once Rice left the game. Saints defense ranking 24th against the pass has me liking the matchup for Kelce. Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns at even money is thrown in by default because for Kelce to get 2 TDs, Mahomes needs over 1.5 touchdown passes (most likely, don't get technical on me). As for Kamara's receiving yards that's because of the Chiefs 22nd ranked pass defense plus Kamara has gone over in 3 straight games. 20 to 1 odds, let's go and get it!