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VIP Picks 10/8/23

Here's the early play for tomorrow. The rest of the plays will be up by Noon est.


9:30 EST

Bills (-5.5)

  • This spread seems too easy but I’m not going to pass up on it.

  • The Bills have really looked like the best team in the league over the last 3 weeks including a 48-20 beat down on the Dolphins last week.

  • The Jags beat the Falcons in London last week and here they are again which a lot of people will say is a huge advantage but I just don’t think that’s enough for them to hang around with the Bills.

  • This Jaguars team gave up 37 points to HOUSTON a couple weeks ago so I’m confident Josh Allen and the Bills will put up plenty of points on them even if they are still getting over the jet lag.

  • I also think a lot more of this Bills defense who has held opponents to 20, 3, & 10 over the last 3 weeks.

  • This one should be easy like Sunday morning.

Good Morning, the Miami shit had me livid last night. They literally could have taken a knee to win our 2 unit parlay yesterday and complete a 3-2 winning day. Instead, dumb shit happened. Look it up if you didn't see it yet. I can't be blamed for shit like that happening. On to Sunday to close out another winning week.

1:00 EST


Dolphins ML / Lions ML / Ravens ML (-102)

  • The Dolphins are in a bounce back spot after getting punched in the mouth against the Bills last week. The Giants could not do anything on offense last week when they were held to 3 points on Monday Night Football. Miami’s offense should light it up and pull away with this game comfortably.

  • The Lions host the 0-4 Panthers and they’ve had a few extra days to rest/prepare for this one since they played on Thursday last week. The Lions are legit and they should win this game.

  • The Ravens will be the toughest leg here just because it’s a Division rival game for them and both teams are dealing with injuries. I give the edge to the Ravens because they have been much better on third down conversions (5 vs 23) and red zone defense (3 vs 22) compared to the Steelers. Key factors that will come into play today in what have historically been close games between these two.

1:00 EST

Player Prop

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Over (75.5)

  • Henry came through for us last week with 122 yards and we are going right back to him today

  • He will go up against a Colts defense that allows 127 rushing yards per game and they have allowed 100+ yard rushers in back to back games

  • The numbers don’t lie, the Titans WIN when Derrick Henry carries the ball more and they control the game. They lose when he doesn’t carry the ball as much. Look for the Titans to run the ball with Henry plenty today and he should go over 75.5 for us.

  • What has Henry done against the Colts in recent matchups? He’s gone way over 75.5 in 7 of his last 8 - 128, 1114, 113, 68, 178, 103, 149, & 82.

1:00 EST

Player Prop

Kendrick Bourne Receptions Over (2.5)

  • He’s gone over 2.5 receptions in 3 of 4 games this season and the one he went under was a 38-3 blowout.

  • Bourne has gone 6, 4, 4, & 2 so he’s really covered this number easily 75% of the time and FD has this line at -136 which is great value.

  • I do expect the Patriots to have a bounce back performance after suffering the worst loss in Bill Belichik’s career last week.

  • Bourne should be featured in the passing game like he was in the first 3 games of the season and he leads the team in targets with 28 on the season.


4:07 EST

Rangers (Montgomery) (+102)

  • I know they are up 1-0 but I gotta ride the Rangers in this matchup today

  • Jordan Montgomery cashed a +136 for us in the Wild Card round and he’s only allowed 2 runs in his last 35 innings pitched.

  • Grayson Rodriguez will pitch for the Orioles and last time he faced the Rangers was on 5/26 when the Rangers knocked him out after 3.1 innings when they scored 9 off of him en route to a 12-2 win. They also beat him 5-2 on 4/5

  • The Rangers just feel like a team that's gaining a lot of momentum and another win today will set them up nicely to take full control of this series.

We never got a chance to put in our heat check parlay but I won't let that historic collapse from Miami cause us a chance at a fun one. Not a full unit here since we are chasing long odds:


  • Titans ML

  • Derrick Henry Anytime TD

  • Dolphins ML

  • Tyreek Hill Anytime TD

  • Ravens ML

  • Lamar Jackson Anytime TD

  • Bengals ML

  • Jamar Chase Anytime TD

  • Patriots ML

  • Hunter Henry Anytime TD


*If early plays hit/look good I will add more for the 4 pm and night slate.


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