1-2 start to the week and the first “losing” day with NFL action in a few weeks, we went on a 16-4 NFL run that came to a close last night with the Bills committing 4 turnovers, not playing defense on the final drive, committing a pass interference on the biggest play of the game, and 12 men on the field penalty when the Broncos missed the field goal to give them a second chance to make it as time expired. WEIRD sequence but it is what it is. 1-2 won’t kill us to start the week but it’s frustrating when shit like that happens because when you look back at the numbers, you don’t see the full story of some of the bullshit that happens. Rant over, on to Tuesday.
NHL:
7:00 EST
Bruins (-162)
Bigger moneyline but that’s because the Bruins have a significant advantage across the ice in this one and they’ve only lost back to back games 3 times since the beginning of last season. That’s a wild stat.
Devon Levi is the confirmed starter in goal for the Sabres tonight and he’s allowed 10 goals in his last 3 starts. This will be the first time the 21 year old has ever faced the Bruins.
Linus Ullmark will be in net for the Bruins and he’s 5-1-1 on the season with a 2.26 GA/G
The Bruins really dominated the Sabres last year going 3-1 against them and they’ve outscored them 14-1 in their 2 most recent games against them.
You can take the puck line for better value if you want but I’m personally drinking the juice on the moneyline
NBA:
7:00 EST
Player Prop
Joel Embiid Points Over (32.5)
This will be a popular one tonight but I’m not passing up on this matchup for Embiid. I also think a lot of bets will be going on Maxey after he dropped 50 on the Pacers 2 days ago.
Embiid will be going up against the Pacers who rank 3rd worst in the league defensively and they look like they prefer to just let their opponent score so they can go down the other end and score.
Embiid just played the Pacers on Sunday and he went off for 37 points in that game. He had 14 free throws and hit his field goals at 46.2% in that game so needless to say, there wasn’t much resistance from the Pacers and don’t expect that to change 2 days later.
Embiid is listed as a game time decision but there’s no risk to lock this in because if he doesn’t play then it’s no actioned. His left hip is sore from carrying the team.
CBB:
9:30 EST
Team Total
Kentucky Over (70.5)
We are off to a good start to College Basketball season and 2 of the 3 plays have been team totals.
Here’s another one for tonight with #17 Kentucky going up against #1 Kansas
First off - Kansas is going to do a lot of scoring in this game, they have scored 99 points in each of their first 2 games. That should help the pace of this game and if you can’t get team totals you can take the combined over at 147.
Kentucky has scored 81 and 86 in their first 2 games. Although those games were vs far less talented opponents, it shows that Kentucky can score big numbers.
The big factor in this game will be the experience of Kansas against the inexperience of Kentucky. 3 of their top 5 scorers are freshman. But those freshman were some of the best available in the country as Kentucky had the #1 recruiting class last offseason.
I do think we could see some early nerves from the young guys in the first game on ESPN against the #1 team in the Nation but I expect them to settle in and with a fast pace from both teams, we should see Kentucky go over 70.5 whether they win or lose.
Underdog team totals have been one of the most profitable bet types over the last few seasons.
I am experimenting with a new system to generate valuable player props, here are the top 2 that the system generated for tonight. These are strictly generated by a data pull and I’ve manually reviewed to make sure they check out.
Tim Hardaway Jr Points Over (15.5) - Over in 8 of his last 10. Game over under is 239.5 so it should be high scoring
Isaiah Stewart Points Over (10.5) - Over in 7 of his last 10. Playing Atlanta who has allowed 117 ppg
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