Well it’s tough for me to get up and do this following a day like yesterday. Texas spread missed by 3, and the Louisville debacle was one of the worst we’ve seen in a while. They were up 28-13 in the 2nd half. Then in a tie game from the 50 they go for a Hail Mary on 4th instead of punt, then get a 15 yard penalty on defense, then a 5 yard penalty for 20 free fucking yards, & then the Stanford kicker hit a career long field goal for the win. The shit that happens sometimes…WTF
I am locked in today because if there’s any day of the week that I want to go off it’s NFL Sunday. LFG!!
NFL:
1:00 EST
Ravens (-3) 4️⃣
I think the Ravens are legit Super Bowl contenders and I think the Steelers have a good record because they’ve got to play some BAD teams to get to 7-2.
Anthony Richardson played one series vs the Steelers and went 70 yards in 2:59. I expect the Steelers to have trouble slowing Lamar down.
The Ravens downfall is their defense but they’ve been winning games thanks to their #1 ranked offense and I think they will do that again today.
1:00 EST
Alt Line Parlay
Josh Jacobs 50+ Rush Yds / Justin Jefferson 70+ Rec Yds (-102) 🥇
Jacobs has gone 50+ in 8 of his 9 games and the Bears are 24th vs the run.
Jefferson has cleared 70+ receiving yards in 7 of his last 8 games and it 2nd in the league in receiving yards.
1:00 EST
Teaser 6 Point
Dolphins (-1) / Chiefs (+8) 🥈
The Dolphins will host the Raiders who are a west coast team playing a 1 pm est game so really like 10 am their time.
The Raiders have lost 5 in a row. The Dolphins have looked good since Tua has come back almost beating the Bills and then beating the Rams. Let’s take the Dolphins at home.
Then we get the undefeated Chiefs at a +8 cushion on the road against the Bills in a potential AFC Championship preview.
Josh Allen has actually beat Mahomes a couple times in the regular season in recent years but Mahomes has covered +8 in 6 of his last 7 vs Allen.
Plus the Chiefs seem to get the calls in close games these days.
1:00 EST
Parlay
Packers ML / Vikings ML (+102) 5️⃣
The 6-3 Packers will take on the Bears who are going through a tough stretch losing 3 straight and only scoring 12 total points in their last 2 games.
The Packers 3 losses have come against 3 of the best teams in the league.
I look for the Packers to win this game on the road today.
The Vikings are on the road vs the 2-7 Titans and the Vikings had a stinker last week when they couldn’t even score a touchdown but they still won.
I don’t expect 2 stinkers in a row from the Vikings and they should get the win for us today.
1:00 EST
Player Prop
Jameson Williams Receiving Yards Over (44.5) 🥉
He has a 100% hit rate on the over on this line in games where he has had more than 1 catch (5 for 5) he’s had 53, 76, 80, 79, & 121.
He’s going up against the Jaguars who have the third worst pass defense in the league.
I also like this one because he could cover on one big play which he’s done in 3 games this season with single catches of 70, 50, & 52!
Anytime Touchdown Picks (ranked in order of confidence)
Ja’Marr Chase
Amon-Ra St Brown
Tyreek Hill
DeAndre Hopkins
Parlay pays 23-1