VIP Picks 11/3/25

Well we could complain about how “close” we were to having a huge day if we got 2 more points from the Broncos game, 2 more yards from Dobbins, double digit favorites just win straight up, Georgia run it in to cover instead of knee on the one blah blah blah. It was a fucking blood bath of a weekend. It was horrible. -3 units in October was also a major let down for me personally as that’s always been our most successful month of the year. New week and need to be more careful I guess. Quick check in on the NFL season, we are 53% year to date. Looking deeper into the bet types, we have hit Alt Line Player Prop Parlays 64%, Spreads 63%, Teasers 56%, Moneylines 50%, Player Props 46%, and Moneyline Parlays 40%. So guess what we are targeting tonight?

NFL:

8:15 EST

Cowboys (-2.5) - We are taking the adjusted line at -2.5 -147 to get it below a field goal even though I don’t think it will come into play but better safe than sorry. The Cowboys haven’t lived up to expectations this season but they dealt with injuries and they have played 3 home games out of 7. They have gone 2-0-1 and have scored 40+ points in all 3 home games so I am expecting a big number from them again tonight vs this Cardinals defense. The Cardinals have lost 5 in a row although they have played close games. I think the difference here will be the high powered Dallas offense and the Cardinals will struggle to keep up even though the Dallas defense has been downright bad. Go Cowboys!

8:15 EST

Alt Line Parlay

Dak Prescott 250+ Pass Yds / Jake Ferguson 25+ Rec Yds (-125) - We are going to target this Cardinals 24 ranked pass defense and 8th most yards allowed to tight ends this season. Dak has thrown for 250+ in 5 of his last 7 games while averaging 268 yards per game during that stretch. Jake Ferguson had a goose egg last week and didn’t even have a catch but he had gone over 25 receiving yards in 6 straight games before that. The over under for points is set at 54.5 so that’s a good indication that there will be plenty of offense in this game and a good sport for both these guys to hit 250+ and 25+. 

NBA:

7:00 EST

Alt Line Player Prop Parlay

Julius Randle (Min) 20+ Pts / Jalen Brunson (Nyk) 20+ Pts / Lauri Markkanen (Uta) 20+ Pts (-122) - We’ve had success with this so far this season so targeting another. We start with Julis Randle who has been a bucket for the TWolves. He has scored 20+ in 5 of 6 games and had 19 in the 1 game he didn’t get there. Brunson is Mr Bucket for the Knicks and he’s scored 20+ in all 6 games this season. Markkanen has been going off for the Jazz and is currently 4th in the league in scoring averaging 33 ppg. He has scored 20+ in all 6 games. Add up all the trends and we have 17 for 18 (94%) and we are getting -122 odds for that which feels pretty good. 

7:00 EST

Player Prop

Kyle Kuzma (Mil) Points Over (8.5) - Let’s target Kuzma tonight in a game that should be high scoring between the Bucks and the Pacers. He’s coming off of his best game of the season where he scored 22 points. He’s scored 8+ points in 4 of 5 games this season but it feels like a good spot to get him coming off of a 22 point game with his line set at 8.5.