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VIP Picks 11/5/23


Germany game 9:30 am kickoff!


NFL:

9:30 EST

Team Total

Chiefs Over (26.5)

  • The Chiefs are coming off of the stinker of the century but they should bounce back in what should be a high scoring game. 

  • We have two of the best offenses in the league in this game. MIA 33.9 ppg & KC 23.4 ppg. This should be an offensive show.

  • Don’t forget that MIA defense allowed 48 to the Bills and 31 to the Eagles.

  • This game is in Germany so I do always get sketched out about the field conditions in these futbol stadiums overseas but both of these offenses should light it up offensively.

  • Mahomes is saying he’s good to go following the flu last week and it feels like a big bounce back spots for the Chiefs. 

  • Over 26.5 looks good whether they win or lose. 


1:00 EST

Teaser 7 Point

Pats / Commanders Over (33.5) / Cowboys / Eagles Over (40)

  • The Commanders have gone over 33.5 in 4 of their last 5 games with totals of 69, 40, 60, & 65.

  • The Patriots offense has been better the last 3 games & scored 29 in their 1 home game during that stretch. Their defense has allowed 31, 25, 21, 34, & 38 in their last 5 games.

  • It’s a beautiful Fall day in New England so that should set up good scoring conditions with 2 defenses who have really struggled.

  • A final score of 20-17 or more seems very doable

  • Then we have the Cowboys vs Eagles who finished 40-34 in the regular season with both teams healthy last year

  • They are 2 of the top 3 offenses in the league averaging 28 ppg so they should both be able to combine for 40+

1:00 EST

Parlay

Ravens ML / Saints ML / Browns ML (-116)

  • The Ravens will host a good Seahawks team but it’s a West Coast team playing a 1 pm game on the East Coast which is really like a 11 am start with the clock change last night. Still, the Ravens have won 38-6 and 25-9 in a couple of their home games this season. The Seahawks defense has been better in recent weeks but we saw some big numbers allowed from them earlier this season. This Ravens offense has scored 30+ in back to back games and they should be able to score enough points to get the Win at home today.

  • The Saints will be home vs the 2-6 Bears. Look for Derek Carr to attack the 30th ranked Bears pass defense in this one, he’s coming off of a 300+ yard game last week against the Colts. There’s nothing special about the Saints defense but the Bears offense has been held to less than 2 touchdowns in 2 of their last 3 games. Saints should puill away.

  • Then the Browns will host the Cardinals who traded their QB this week so Clayton Tune will be making his first ever NFL start and it will be on the road. The Browns will be getting DeShaun Watson back for this game and they should have the edge.

  • -116 odds pretty good value here.

1:00 EST

Player Prop

Darrell Henderson Jr Rushing Yards Over (49.5)

  • Henderson Jr should be the lead back for the Rams today with the news of Kyren Williams being placed on injured reserve yesterday.

  • Williams had run for 100+ yards in 2 of his last 3 games.

  • More news that sets Henderson up for a big day is that starting Quarterback Matthew Stafford isn’t expected to play due to a thumb injury so the Rams may look to run the ball more than normal.

  • He will be going up against the Packers defense that has struggled against the run this season allowing 132 rushing yards per game.


4:25 EST

Same Game Parlay

A.J. Brown Alt Receiving Yards 60+ / CeeDee Lamb Alt Receiving Yards 50+ (-150)

  • These two receivers have been on tears so we are taking their alternate lines in this game of the week

  • Brown has gone for 130, 137, 131, 127, 175, & 131 in his last 6 games so 60+ should be a breeze. Sure Dallas has played good pass defense but Brown had 60+ in both games against them last year including 103 in the most recent meeting.

  • Lamb has gone for 158 & 117 in his last 2 games so 50+ from him looks good. The Eagles have been bad against the pass this season (26th) which makes me like this even more.

  • Lamb had 120 receiving yards in the most recent meeting against the Eagles.

  • If you want to really boost the odds you could add both of these guys Anytime TDs to this to get +427 odds.


There aren’t a lot of games that project to be high scoring so not the best week for an Anytime Touchdown parlay but we have to play one. These are intended to be a low risk high reward betsfor $1-$5 or whatever you are comfortable with but not a full unit.


Tier 1 🎰

$1 to win $278

  • Chris Olave

  • Terry McLaurin

  • Mark Andrews

  • CeeDee Lamb

  • DeVonte Smith

  • Stefon Diggs


Tier 2 🎰🎰

$1 to win $1,658

  • Darrell Henderson

  • Rhamondre Stevenson

  • Alvin Kamara

  • Bijan Robinson

  • Kareem Hunt

  • Tyler Lockett

  • Adam Thielen

  • A.J. Brown

  • Ja’Marr Chase


*Let's check in later on to see how the early action went and we may add a play or 2 for the Bills vs Bengals game tonight!


Added 6:45 EST

8:20 EST

Player Prop

Josh Allen Touchdown Passes Over (1.5)

  • Josh Allen has thrown for 2+ touchdown passes in 5 straight games and 6 of his 8 overall this season.

  • The Bengals rank 21st against the pass and they haven’t really played any QBs who you would think would drive up the stats against them. Allen will be the best QB they have faced this season.

  • The over under for points in this game is 50.5 so the books suggest that this will be a high scoring Sunday Night game which lines up nicely for us for this bet

  • This is a revenge spot for the Bills as well after the Bengals eliminated them from the playoffs last year. Allen and the offense have also had extra time to prepare for this one since they played on Thursday last week. 

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