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VIP Picks 12/18/23


Well a winning day but not as big as we would have liked to have so we finished the week down but less than a unit. Entering Christmas week so you know we are due for the bounce back in a big way. Let’s look to get the week started with a winning night tonight!


NFL:

8:15 EST

Eagles (-3.5)

  • I know Seattle can be a tough place to play but I’m betting on a bounce back from the Eagles here tonight after losing back to back games against top competition.

  • Teams with at least a 60% win rate coming off of a 20+ point loss are 40-8 ATS covering 83% of the time.

  • The Seahawks have lost 5 of their last 6 and this is going to be a tough matchup for them against the Eagles. 

  • There is rain in the forecast and I expect the Eagles to have a lot of success running the ball (more on that in a minute) which will allow them to control this game.

  • Both starting QBs are questionable for this game but reports indicate that Hurts is more likely to play than Smith.

  • Hurts status is obviously a major factor here but if he’s good to go, I feel like Philly could easily win this game by 10+.


8:15 EST

D’Andre Swift Rushing Yards Over (59.5)

  • The Eagles have got blown out in back to back games against two of the best teams in the league so obviously Swift’s stats don’t look great the last couple of weeks but I really like this matchup for him tonight.

  • Prior to playing from behind against the 49ers and Cowboys, Swift had ran for an average of 77.8 yards per game over his last 10 games.

  • He’s got a couple big things going in his favor tonight - 1. It’s raining in Seattle today into tonight and it’s been described as a steady rain by the weather channel. 2. This Seattle defense has allowed 123.4 rushing yards per game this season. 

  • Let’s go with Swift to have a big game


NBA:

7:00 EST

Player Prop

Kawhi Leonard Points Over (27.5)

  • Kawhi has gone over this number 4 of his last 5 games and he’s averaged 33.8 ppg during that stretch

  • He has a great matchup against the Pacers tonight who have the second worst defense in the league allowing 125.9 ppg

  • The over under is 248 in this game so there should be a ton of points and Kawhi should go over this number unless the Clippers get a huge lead and they sit him on the bench early.


9:10 EST

Player Prop

Dorian Finney-Smith Points Over (7.5)

  • If you saw the name and line and guessed that it came from the NBA AI prop sheet, you’re absolutely right! 

  • Not a guy who I would usually target but he has covered this line in 9 of his last 10 games and he played a season low in minutes in the 1 game he went under which happened to be his most recent game which the Nets got blown out by the Nuggets in.

  • He’s averaged 11.8 in the games he’s gone over during that stretch of 9 in his last 10.

  • I’d expect him to be back in the mix against the Jazz tonight with an over under of 234.5 so it should be a high scoring game.

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