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VIP Picks 12/2/23


2-1 start to December and 1-0 start to Championship weekend last night with the Washington team total and Nuggets team total. We missed our Jaylen assist prop, he was more focused on shooting last night especially when Tatum got ejected. On to Saturday with some big football games! We are starting the day with 4 plays. Here we go boys!!!


Cross Sport:

12:00 EST

Parlay

Texas ML / Avalanche ML (-156)

  • Oklahoma St frat house killed a longhorn and it was published in the media. You’ve got to be a sick fuck to do something like that but god game this Longhorns are going to use that as extra motivation to beat Oklahoma St today.

  • The Ok St offense runs through Ollie Gordon and we saw what happens when he gets shut down when they lost 45-3 vs UCF. Texas has the 4th ranked run defense and should shut him down today. That’s the X factor in this matchup.

  • The Avalanche will face the Ducks who they beat 8-2 in the first meeting. It was pure domination 38-17 shots on goal in that game.

  • The Ducks come in in an 8 game losing streak while the Avs come in 4-1 in their last 5.


CFB:

4:00 EST

Alabama / Georgia Over (55)

  • 30-27 or more gets the job done here. Both of these teams come in averaging 38 and 33 points per game respectively so I expect there to be a lot of points in this game.

  • Recent SEC Championship point totals just for reference - 50-30, 41-24 (Bama v UGA), & 52-46 in the last 3 - wayyyyyyy over 55 in all three.

  • Georgia scored 50+ themselves against two different ranked opponents this year.

  • Bama scored 24+ in all 4 of their games against ranked opponents this season.

  • Let’s take the over in what will turn out to be the game of the day.


4:00 EST

Teaser 7 Point

Alabama (+11.5) / Louisville (+8)

  • I don’t consider this a double dip with the over play in the Bama game and the +11.5, I just see good value on both and they don’t directly relate to eachother.

  • Bama has been an underdog 3 times since 2010 and all three of those games have been against Georgia. They have won 2 of those 3 games outright by 28 and 17.

  • Alabama was ranked right at the top with Georgia before the early season loss to Texas but they have reeled off 10 straight since then. UGA hasn’t lost in just about 2 years but that last loss came to Bama in this same game in 2021. Bama might not win, but they should keep this game within 10 points so I feel good about the teaser here.

  • Louisville will take on #4 Florida St and all the pressure is on Florida St to win this game to advance to the College Football Playoff but the challenge is that they are going to be without their star QB Jordan Travis.

  • FSU looked pretty soft against Florida early on last week where I think they only had like 2 yards of total offense well into the 2nd quarter when ESPN flashed the stat.

  • Louisville’s defense has struggled the last 2 games but they showed out in their two games against ranked opponents this season holding #10 Notre Dame to 20 points and and #20 Duke to a goose egg 0

  • I expect the Florida St offense to struggle with their backup QB in. The Louisville offense has scored 30+ in their last 4 games so expect them to make some plays.

  • An outright win is definitely a possibility for the Cardinals but +8 feels even better.


8:00 EST

Michigan Adjusted Spread (-20.5)

  • We are taking the adjusted spread at -20.5 at -148 just to avoid having to cover 4 scores with the -21.5.

  • Michigan is going to be looking to make a statement in his game with Head Coach Jim Harbaugh coming back from his 3 game suspension

  • The books have Iowa’s team total at 0.5 for each half which just speaks to how good this Michigan defense has been - #1 in the Nation holding teams to 10.3 ppg

  • Common opponent check:

    • Mich beat Penn St 24-15

    • Mich beat Nebraska 45-7

    • Mich beat Purdue 41-13

    • Mich beat Mich St 49-0

    • Iowa lost to Penn St 31-0

    • Iowa snuck by Nebraska 13-10

    • Iowa snuck by Purdue 20-14

    • Iowa bea Mich St by 26-16

  • Michigan is also coming off of a win against Ohio St who is by far levels above this Iowa team.

  • These two met in the Big Ten Championship in 2021 and Michigan absolutely ROUTED Iowa 42-3. I expect a similar result tonight.

Opmerkingen


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