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VIP Picks 12/21/23

3-2 winning day with the Celtics at +132 blowout winner to win the day! Even to up just under 1 unit on the week for some of you depending on how you’ve played the bets this week. Thursday Night on PRIME coming up tonight which we have crushed this season - 15-4 in our last 19! Let's keep it going tonight!


CFB:

8:00 EST

South Florida (+3.5)

  • Syracuse will have a really good QB next season but that doesn’t help that their starter and backup are out for this game tonight so they will be leaning on a red shirt freshman who has one pass for -6 yards this season. I think that will make things tough for this Syracuse offense that even struggled down the stretch with their starting QB.

  • USF struggled against the pass in the losses where they got blown out last year and I don’t see the red shirt freshman coming in to throw for 350+ tonight. I also think this USF defense will be able to focus on shutting down the run which puts them in a good spot defensively.

  • Offensively, I love me a good mobile QB and that’s what USF has in Byrum Brown who threw for 3,078 yards and ran for another 745 with 34 total touchdowns this season. By no means am I saying Brown is on the level of Drake Maye but just pointing out that this Syracuse defense really struggled against Maye in a 40-7 less where he had 497 total yards and 4 touchdowns. Same style dual threat QB, that’s all I’m saying.

  • Syracuse also fired their head coach and will be without some key pieces on the defensive side of the ball.

  • Motivation is always a key factor in bowl games and I think USF going for a winning season will be the more motivated team. +3.5 is the official play.


NFL:

8:20 EST

Player Prop

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Over (51.5)

  • Soon as I saw this matchup I immediately thought of what Kamara’s rushing yard line would be and I was thinking it would be somewhere in the low 60s so as soon as I saw it at 51.5 I didn’t hesitate to lock in the over.

  • Kamara has run for 51+ in 4 straight games and 9 of his 11 games overall this season.

  • He’s averaged 3.9 yards per carry this season so he would need 13 carries tonight if the averages hold true and he’s had 13+ carries in 3 of his last 4 games plus he’s averaged 15 carries per game this season.

  • The Rams defense has allowed 110.8 rushing yards per game so I like Kamara going over 51.5 for us tonight. 


8:20 EST

Same Game Parlay

Cooper Kupp Alt Receiving Yards 50+ / Tyler Higbee Alt Receptions 2+ (-145)

  • I started my research by seeing that the Saints have the 6th ranked passing defense, so that’s why we are parlaying these alternative lines to increase our chances of winning.

  • Kupp has been on a tear with 100+ yard games in back to back weeks. You figure he will be the focus for the Saints defense tonight but seeing the most production from him the last couple weeks since the beginning of the season has me feeling pretty good about him getting 50+ yards for us.

  • Tyler Higbee has had 2+ receptions in 10 of his 13 games this season. The Saints defense has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to tight ends so the Rams should look to utilize Higbee tonight. 2+ catches should be money for us.

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