XMas Eve + XMas Day Picks
- Kof
- Dec 24, 2024
- 3 min read
Pritch please couldn’t hit for us last night….go figure we have taken his prop in 2 of his DUD games during the stretch where he’s been tearing it up. Thankfully we got the MNF SGP to salvage the day. Man I was on the edge of my seat at the end there where Rattler was overthrowing WIDE open guys in the flat when he needed 1 yard lol. I will make a promise to you guys here today that we will never put our money on Spencer Rattler again. Deal.
Small slate today but I know all of you want some action so here’s my favorite play on the one game for today:
CFB:
8:00 EST
Team Total
USF Over (30.5)
TEMPO. USF ranks 7th in the Nation in tempo and average 75.2 plays per game.
POINTS. USF has scored 28, 63, 59, 44, & 35 in 5 of their last 6 games.
MATCHUP. San Jose St will be without BOTH of their starting cornerbacks in this matchup. USF QB Bryce Archie has had big plays of 40+ yards in 5 of his last 6 games and should be able to create big plays vs this SJST defense tonight.
San Jose St can put up points quickly as well.
Load up the sleigh Santa, give us points and give us presents tonight.
Christmas Day Picks:
I’m not working tomorrow so here’s what I like for Christmas Day action.
NFL:
1:00 EST
Chiefs (-162) 🥇
I know the moneyline is juicy but we have seen the Chiefs “find a way” to win close games and win but not cover a field goal spread - Chargers 2 point win, Raiders 2 point win, Panthers barely a 3 point win, Broncos 2 point win, see what I’m saying? No, I won’t take Steelers +3, I’d rather just take Chiefs moneyline
The Steelers are trending down, they’ve lose 3 of their last 5 and they allowed 38 fucking points in one of those games they won during that stretch. The Ravens ran the ball down their throat on Saturday and the Eagles threw all over them two weeks ago. The Chiefs balanced offense should have their way with the state of this Steelers defense right now. “overrated”
No way the NFL let’s Mahomes lose on Christmas.
1:00 EST
Player Prop
DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Over (3.5) 🥈
Same play that we took and he covered on Saturday.
He’s now covered this line in 7 of his last 8 games and it’s +115 odds on Draftkings so sign me up for that value any day of the week, even if it’s an NFL game on a Wednesday afternoon. What is life?
Steelers gave up 5 for 100 to Zay Flowers last week, 8 for 110 to A.J. Brown two weeks ago, and 6 for 86 vs Ja’Marr Chase a few weeks ago so I expect Mahomes to be looking to get the ball to him in this matchup today.
4:30 EST
Player Prop
Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Over (44.5) 🥉
I like this matchup for Lamar going up against the Texan defense that has allowed other dual threat QBs to have success this season - Anthony Richardson ran for 56 and 45, Josh Allen 54, Drake Maye 38, & Mahomes 33.
Lamar has covered this line in 66% of his games this season.
I love saying this and then it happens which I rarely do but I like a player prop that can cover on one play. He hasn’ done it this year but he’s ripped off big ones in the past. He had one for 39 a few weeks ago vs the Eagles.
Small risk high reward plays (FunZees)
Christmas Day Anytime TD Parlay
Isiah Pacheco
DeAndre Hopkins
Nico Collins
Isaiah Likely
84 to 1 odds
First TD Parlay
Isiah Pacheco
Isaiah Likely
151 to 1 odds
NBA:
5:00 EST
Player Prop
Jayson Tatum Points Over (25.5)
Tatum is coming off of a 43 point game AND a game off of rest on Monday so he should be fully charged for the Christmas Day showcase.
Tatum has dropped 43, 31, 28, 34, & 33, & 35 in recent games!
Tatum has been good against Philly in recent years with big games including a 51 point Game 7 at home against them and a buzzer beater for the win as a couple examples.
He’s scored 25+ on 3 straight Christmas Day games and I expect him to continue his scoring streak tonight.
I’m obviously more confident in over 25.5 but you can get 30+ on Draftkings at +185 odds 👀
FunZee
Parlay
Knicks ML
Mavericks ML
Celtics ML
Lakers ML
Suns ML
+1042 odds
I hope you all have a Merry Christmas!