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VIP Picks 3/29/24

3-2 day but a losing day unit wise if you played all 5 the way I did. The strong play went down thanks to Arizona and the Celtics. UNC came up just short with a late gag job and RJ Davidson is being investigated for betting his life savings on Alabama after shooting 4 for 20 on the night. The bright note is the fact that we went 3-0 on MLB to start the season and all 3 plays were far and away easy fucking money. Dodgers and DBacks came in at +107 and they won by 21 runs. Our no runs in the 1st had 4 strikeouts and 2 weak ground outs to 2nd base. The Guardians cruised to an 8-0 victory with a workhorse performance from Bieber with 11 strikeouts. Hey, baseball has always been my best sport and it always will be. This week has been a rough one but we just take it day by day.  Leggo.


MLB:

3:05 EST

Braves / Phillies No Runs in the 1st 🥈

  • Spencer Strider vs Zack Wheeler sounds like no runs in the 1st to me!

  • Strider went 5-1 NO runs in the 1st against the Phillies in the regular season and playoffs last season.

  • He’s held the top 5 hitters in the Phillies lineup to a .192 avg in 109 career at bats and has a 38% strikeout rate against them. Obviously 1 long ball could spoil it but tough first at bat of the season vs Mr Strider.

  • Zack Wheeler went 3-1 NO runs in the 1st against the Braves last season.

  • He’s held the top 5 hitters in the Braves lineup to a .218 avg with a 30% strikeout rate.

  • Feels like 52 degrees with an 18 mph cross breeze. Yeah, sign me up for no runs in the 1st to star the day.


9:40 EST

Guardians (Allen) (-135) 🥉

  • Easy 8-0 win for them last night and they get to play game 2 of the series against a bad A’s team tonight.

  • They will face A’s starting pitcher Ross Stripling who they come in hitting .346 against in a small sample size. Stripling lost 18 of the 22 games he pitched last season, 82% loser rate.

  • Logan Allen is a young 25 year old lefty who had his ups and downs last season. He did pitch 4 scoreless innings in a 6-1 win against this A’s team last season. 

  • Seeing the Guardians lineup put up 8 runs last night has me confident they will be able to score off of Stripling again tonight and I trust Allen to give us a quality start vs an A’s lineup that had 4 hits and 11 strikeouts last night.


9:40 EST

Parlay

DBacks ML / Dodgers ML (+105) 🥇

  • They came in at +107 for us last night and won by 21 runs combined.

  • DBacks should stay hot against Cal Quantrill who is coming off the worst year of his career with a 5.24 ERA.

  • Merrill Kelly will start for ARI and he really shined in the playoffs last year with a 2.25 ERA and comes into this season ready to pick up where he left off. He only allowed 4 earned runs in 19 innings pitched against the Rockies last season. 

  • The Dodgers will face Zack Thompson who they don’t have much history against but he shit his pants when he faced the Dodgers last season 0.2 innings pitched, 2 walks, & 2 earned runs. I’m not gonna lie, I’d shit my pants too if I was facing this Dodgers lineup!

  • I’m surprised Bobby Miller is getting the start for LA tonight but I’m more comfortable taking him than Yamamoto right now. Miller went 11-4 last season in his rookie season so all signs point to him putting in another strong season and of course he should be backed with plenty of run support.


CBB:

7:09 EST

Team Total

NC State Over (71.5) 4️⃣

  • Dogs went 3-1 to kick off the Sweet 16 last night and I’m not picking NC State to win but over 71.5 against Marquette seems like a fucking LOCK.

  • NC St has gone over 71.5 in both of their tourney games with 80 and 79 (1 was including OT) but they also went over in 8 straight games going back to the regular season.

  • Marquette is going to do plenty of scoring themselves which helps with the pace of play and the more they score, the more NC St will score. Marquette is coming off of an 81-77 game vs Colorado. 

  • I like the inside outside game for NC State with 275 pound DJ Burns banging inside and his ability to kick it out to the other guys to hit shots on the perimeter.

  • Underdog team totals are always undervalued plays because no one usually even thinks to take them.


Added 8:04 est

CBB:

9:39 EST

Duke / Houston Over (133.5)

  • Houston is coming off of a game where they scored 100 and allowed 95. Sure there was OT but it still finished with 195 total points

  • Duke is coming off a game where they scored 93 so they can fill it up too.

  • Houston averaged 74 ppg this season & Duke averaged 80 ppg. 

  • A lot of bettors are focusing on the defensive power of both these teams with 80% on the under but I’ll take my chances getting 67+ from these two teams tonight for the over. 



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