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VIP Picks 4/29/24

Well I don’t think I could be THAT bad again if I tried to be. I won’t try to be that bad this week, I’ll try to be great, like I always do. I’ll also point out that after allllllllllllllllllllll the bullshit we dealt with all week, if the Orioles just beat the A’s yesterday we would have hit that +921 parlay to pretty much offset the losses for the whole week. No update on the Twitter situation so still using the other 2 accounts kofsports_2 and bettingwithkof for now. It’s a new week, let’s win some fucking money!


NBA:

7:30 EST

Same Game Parlay

Celtics ML / Tatum 20+ Points (-215) - JACKHAMMER 3 UNIT 🥇

  • The Celtics have all the momentum in the series now after going up 2-1 with a 104-84 win and they’ve had leads of 29+ in 2 of the 3 games in this series.

  • The Boston defensive effort was on full display in Game 3 and they should carry that over into tonight’s game.

  • A win tonight sends the Celtics home for Game 5 on Wednesday night to advance in a game that they will likely be favored by close to 20 points after another route tonight.

  • Tatum has scored 20+ in 14 of his last 17 games against the Heat.

  • The Celtics should keep their starters in the game late even if it’s a blowout because they have been known to blow big leads so that helps the Tatum 20+ part of this SGP.


7:30 EST

Kristaps Porzingis Threes Made Over (1.5) 🥈

  • Porzingis definitely hasn't hesitated to fire up the threes in 2 of the 3 games in this series, he's gone 3 for 5 and 4 for 8 from three in Games 1 and 3 which have been the games that Boston has won. 

  • Not only is he not hesitating to fire from behind the arc but he's pulling up from fucking Pluto with some of them and still hitting! 

  • Looking back to the regular season, he went over 1.5 threes made in all 3 games against the Heat so he has now gone over 1.5 threes made in 5 of 6 games against them this season. 

  • Pretty good trend and he's coming off a nice game so he should be confident again tonight.


10:00 EST

Lakers (+7.5) 🥉

  • The Lakers are coming off of a win in Game 4 and are playing to avoid elimination again tonight. 

  • The Lakers have had double digit leads in all 4 games in this series, it’s just a matter of closing those out. It goes to show that they have played the Nuggets tough despite the 3-1 series score.

  • The Nuggets could very well be without Jamal Murray tonight and if he’s out, I personally feel that opens the door for a Lakers moneyline play but I think the +7.5 is the safer option. Murray has scored 20+ in every game in this series and hit the game winner in Game 2.

  • Looking at the betting handle on this, 31% of the bets but 68% of the money is on the Lakers to cover +7.5 and I’m liking the looks of that. 

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