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VIP Picks 5/14/24

1-1 to start the week thanks to some very sloppy offense for the majority of the game for the Thunder and Mavericks. I guess we should have taken the Thunder or Th-UNDERRR get it? Celtics and Dodgers came through for the parlay. I will note that the Celtics team total did cash although I’m glad that we weren’t on that because it came down to two last minute free throws to go over. On to Tuesday and it’s a good day to get some momentum going for the week!


MLB:

6:35 EST

Orioles (Bradish) (-1.5) 🥈

  • I will go run line here at +130 odds on FD but you can go strong play on the moneyline if you prefer to go safer.

  • The Orioles will face Chris Bassitt and they come in with a .360 career avg against him in 54 at bats. They went 2-0 against him last season and that included on game where they scored 8 runs in 3 innings against him in Baltimore. Bassitt has struggled on the road this season going 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA. 

  • Kyle Bradish will pitch for the O’s and he’s been great in his 2 starts so far this season. The Jays have got base hits off of him in the past but an impressive stat is is 6.2 launch angle allowed in 108 at bats against the Jays which is essentially ground ball city aka low danger balls put in play.

  • I like the Orioles to run away with this one. 


9:45 EST

Dodgers (Stone) (-1.5) 🥇

  • Same thing as the one above, I’m comfortable with the run line -1.5 but you can bet heavier on the monyeline to be safe.

  • This one is all about Giants starting pitcher Keaton Winn and the fact that this man has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 4.1 innings pitched. The Giants have lost those 2 games 9-1 and 14-3. Smoke sesh. The Dodgers already beat him 8-3 this season.

  • Gavin Stone is pitching for the Dodgers tonight and he’s online allowed 3 runs in his last 20 innings pitched. The Giants lineup doesn’t have a lot of history against him so I like that for him in this matchup.


NBA:

10:30 EST

Team Total

Nuggets Over (104.5) 🥉

  • I said no more team totals and here I am taking a team total. You don’t have to take this one. I get it, our track record for team totals is pathetic in the playoffs but 104.5 after two big wins on the road is too tempting for me.

  • The Nuggets were out played in both of their home games in this series but then went on the road and got two good wins with point totals of 117 and 115 in those games clearing this number by 10+.

  • Denver shortened up the bench minutes in those games which allowed the starting 5 to be out their more which led to more efficient offense shooting over 50% in both Games 3 and 4.

  • I’d expect the same approach tonight and add in the boost of the home crowd who will be back to life with a chance to go up in this series and I like the Nuggets to clear 104.5 tonight.

  • I will fully accept and trash talking from anyone if this goes under and then I will really not take another team total the rest of the season….

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