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VIP Picks 5/4/24

2-1 last night for a profitable night with the Blue Jays first 5 and hit parlay coming through. Harden cost us again and was just 2 lay ups short of covering his line. On to today where we have 1 MLB, 1 NHL, and of course the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby! Let's have ourselves a SATURDAY!


MLB:

6:05 EST

Giants / Phillies NO Runs In the 1st 🥉

  • Ranger Suarez will pitch for the Phillies and he’s only allowed 1 run in his last 30 innings pitched and comes in with the 2nd best ERA in the league.

  • Keaton Winn will pitch for the Giants and he’s been pitching pretty good himself with 3 straight starts pitching 6+ innings and he’s gone NO runs in the 1st in 4 straight starts.

  • Both of these teams have gone 4-1 NO runs in the 1st in their last 5 games.



Kentucky Derby 🐎 🌹 

To Win

#17 Fierceness 🥈

  • Morning line is 5/2 which is +250 for a horse who blew the field away at the Florida Derby

  • Go type in 2024 Florida Derby on YouTube and watch Fiercness jump out in front, cruise, & then pull away by about 5 school bus lengths.

  • He ran the fastest speed figure (110) in a Derby prep race in the last decade.

  • 25 Florida Derby winners have also gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.

  • I expect the odds to be closer to even money by post time and totally worth a unit. Don’t forget that the odds will adjust even after you place your bet in horse racing which is different than other sports.


Trifecta Box $2 ($12)

#17 Fierceness , #2 Sierra Leone , #8 Just A Touch 4️⃣

  • Fierceness is the favorite for a reason, I love him as a winner but can’t see a race in which he doesn’t finish in the Top 3.

  • Won the Risen Star & Blue Grass. Hes a strong closer so watch for him to make a strong push down the final stretch in this race but it might be too late to catch Fierceness but still good enough for the Top 3.

  • Just a Touch got out in front and was right there are the end of the Blue Grass Stakes finishing 2nd behind Sierra Leone. He’s able to get our and front and maintain the pace which is good to see plus the 8 position is historically a good draw for starting position.


NHL:

8:00 EST

Bruins / Leafs Under (5.5) 🥇

  • 4 of the 6 games in this series have gone under 5.5 with each of the last 2 being 2-1 and that 1 was scored with 1 second left in the last game. 

  • Unders have gone 14-6 over the last 20 Game 7’s in the NHL Playoffs 

  • Game 7’s are typically more about not making a mistake to lose than being aggressive to win so low scoring battles are how they typically play out.




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