VIP Picks 6/11/24

2-0 start to the week! Orioles complete the 4 game sweep of the Rays for/with us as we bet on every game in that series and got the win. The Panthers were in a close game but then they really pulled away to take a 2-0 lead on the series. We are 75% in the NBA Finals and 100% in the Stanley Cup Finals so the results are there early on the big stage again. 

I’m taking a future today that a lot of you will call a homer play and that’s fine so you can decide if you like the value and the reasoning and if you take it or not.

NBA Finals MVP

Jayson Tatum (+145)

• Porzingis has a new tear in his leg an there’s a doctor out there saying that he won’t play in the rest of the Finals. Only time will tell.

• This is Tatum’s moment that he’s been waiting for. He’s been here before, failed, and learned. He’s struggled shooting in the first 2 games but he’s still taking the most shots.

• He’s had 30+ point games in 3 of his last 4 playoff road games.

• I see him leading the Celtics to at least take 1 of 2 games in Dallas and then closing this series out at home in Game 5. 

MLB:

6:50 EST

Cubs (Taillon) (+124) 🥉

• I guess we will keep the betting against the Rays going because this matchup stood out to me when I saw that the Cubs lineup is coming in hitting .355 against Rays starting pitcher Zach Eflin in 78 at bats. 

• The Rays have lost 4 games in a row and we bet against them in all 4 of those games so let’s make it 5 in a row tonight.

• James Taillon will pitch for the Cubs and he hasn’t been pitching bad but the Cubs have lost 4 of his last 5 starts which isn’t a good stat to see. But with that said, he’s been solid against the guys who he has faced in this Rays lineup holding them to a .255 avg in a small sample size. 

• Go Cubs Go!

7:45 EST

Pirates (Skenes) (-135) 🥈

• A historic day for us, the first official VIP Play on Paul Skenes who I believe will be a generational type starting pitcher as long as he stays healthy. Plenty of you guys have asked me about betting on him before this point but I haven’t locked in on anything because I wanted to give it time to see how the 22 year old responded to pitching in the big leagues. You never really know what the Show will do to a young guy no matter how good they were in College or Mino Leagues. Well, he’s 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and he’s pitched 5+ innings in 4 of his 5 starts. He’s also allowed 1 walk in 4 of those 5 games so his control has been good which can vary with nerves for most young guys but not him. Oh yeah, one more thing he’s good at is striking people out and he’s had games with 8, 9, 11, & 7 strikeouts so far. The Cardinals lineup he will face tonight averages 8.44 strikeouts per game.

• Miles Mikolas will pitch for the Cardinals and he’s had a rough year to this point going 4-6 with a 5.32 ERA. This Pirates lineup has seen a lot of him in the past (119 at bats) and they come in hitting just under .300 against him.

9:45 EST

Astros / Giants NO Runs In the 1st 🥇

• Jordan Hicks and Ronel Blanco going in this game so two guys who throw gas and have nasty stuff which is a perfect set up for a NO runs in the 1st play.

• Hicks actually burnt us his last time out on a NO runs in the 1st play and he’s just 2-3 NO runs in the 1st in his last 5 starts but I still trust his stuff and this Astros lineup has been NO runned in the 1st in 4 of their last 5 games.

• Ronel Blanco is what we like to call a NO runs in the 1st machine and he’s gone 8-3 NO runs in the first in his 11 starts this season.

• Let’s cash in on this one with both pitchers getting through the 1st cleanly.