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VIP Picks 6/14/24

1-2 was a weak ass Thursday based on how the week has been going but still 8-3 on the week so I’m feeling like we will be ok. GAME 4 OF THE NBA FINALS TONIGHT! 4-1 on the Finals to date and looking to close it out but a statement tonight. We’ve got 2 options for the first play and then a good value player prop that’s hit at a 75% rate over his last 12 playoff games. Let’s get into it.


MLB:

6:30 EST

Red Sox / Yankees Under (9.5) 4️⃣

  • 88% of the bets are on the over in this game but those bettors must be overlooking the starting pitching matchup tonight between Brayan Bello and Luis Gil.

  • Starting with Red Sox starter Brayan Bello, check his previous results vs this Yankees lineup in his career - 6 innings - 1 run, 7 innings - 1 run, 7 innings - 2 runs, 6 innings - 2 runs, 5 innings - 0 earned runs. Pretty solid! He comes in with a 3.68 ERA at Fenway this season.

  • Luis Gil will take the mound for the Yankees and he’s 8-1 with a 2.04 ERA which ranks 5th in the league. Only 3 guys in this Red Sox lineup have ever faced him and they haven’t been good against him. 

  • I look for solid starts from both of these pitchers tonight to set up an under 9.5 for us. 


8:30 EST

Celtics (-110) 🥈

  • Haha I don’t even really have much to say but my pre series prediction of the media and sportsbooks trying to limit the damage they take of people betting the Celtics is so obvious and this is another bluff to list them as underdogs in Game 4.

  • The Mavericks didn’t even go to their practice yesterday, that’s in line with what I saw from them in warmups of Game 2 of fucking around and they seem to be checked out.

  • I mean closing a 21 point gap to 1 in the 4th quarter of Game 3 and still coming up short seems like their best punch and that following their strong start in the 1st quarter where they were up 13 and blew that pretty quickly seems like it’s put them in a give up/check out mindset.

  • Celtics are 7-0 on the road and 15-2 overall in the Playoffs. They played who was in front of them and they absolutely fucking dominated them.

  • It’s a great day to win Banner 18. LFG C’sssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!


8:30 EST

SGP

Alt Spread Celtics (+9.5) / Alt Under (222.5) 🥇

  • This feels like a pretty safe play with the adjusted lines if you feel better about taking this one instead of the straight play above. I’d take one or the other but not both.

  • It’s hard to see the Celtics losing this game. It’s even harder to see them losing this game by 10+ with the way they have played in this series. EVEN if the league gives some direction to the officials on extending the series, you have to think that the game will stay close on a Friday night.

  • As far as the under goes, look at the Celtics defense to this point, they’ve held the Mavs under 100 points in ALL 3 games. All 3 games have gone under 222.5.

  • We would need to see 111+ from both sides and they could definitely do that but the way the defense and pace has been in this series it feels like another low scoring game.


8:30 EST

Payton Pritchard Threes Made Over (0.5) 🥉

  • Good value here at -120 on DK with Pritchard who has hit atleast 1 three in 9 of his last 12 games (75%). Obviously so far in the Finals he’s only hit 1 out of 3 games and it was a long buzzer beater but it’s still good to see that he’s been getting three point shot attempts 4 in Game 3 and 7 in Game 1.

  • His minutes are down a bit from the previous series but that really doesn’t concern me because like I mentioned above, he’s getting plenty of three point attempts

  • Pritchard has been hitting threes at a 40% clip in the playoffs and just under that 38% all regular season so give us 3 three point attempts which he has done in 2 of the 3 Finals games and I feel pretty good about him hitting one.

  • Also if the Mavs fold and it’s a blowout, he could get more playing time and it’s a bucket list thing for shooters to hit a three in a Finals clinching game. 

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