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VIP Picks 7/5/24

1-2 4th of July but I hope it didn’t put a damper on your day yesterday and I hope you all enjoyed yourselves. We are still up about 2 units on the week going into the weekend so feeling good and confident to put together a winning weekend to finish with a winning week to start the month of July.

7:05 EST

Red Sox / Yankees Over (8.5) 🥈

  • Tanner Houck will pitch for the Red Sox who HAD (key word had) the 2nd ranked ERA in the league before his last start where he allowed 8 runs in 4.1 innings. Tough to bounce back from a start like that especially against the 3rd ranked lineup in Yankee Stadium. I’ll give him credit he’s been good against the Yankees in his career but if he pitches like he did his last time out the Yankees will cover the over themselves.

  • Nestor Cortes will pitch for the Yankees and this Red Sox lineup comes in hitting .371 against him. 

  • All 3 games in the first Red Sox/Yankees series went over 8.5 with scores of 8-1, 8-4, and 9-3.

  • Feels like 88 degrees with 71% humidity at gametime, which is a proven fact that baseballs fly further in hot and humid weather.

  • BOTH teams have gone over 8.5 in 4 of their last 5 games overall for an 8 out of 10 80% trend combined. Take the over!

7:20 EST

Phillies (Nola) (+120) 🥉

  • The Phillies let us down yesterday but they are very valuable underdogs in this game at +120

  • They are going up against Max Fried who they come in hitting .342 against and they scored 3 runs against him before he could even get 3 outs earlier this season where he got pulled before he finished the inning. 

  • Aaron Nola will pitch for Philly and he got rocked against the Braves earlier this season but he’s been solid against them in the past.

  • Braves have lost 3 of last 4 and Phillies have won 3 of last 4.

8:10 EST


Royals ML / Orioles ML (+136) 🥇

  • Starting with the Royals, they will be facing the Rockies and more specifically starting pitcher Kyle Freeland who comes in with that 7.94 ERA which is cold as the Rockies (mountains). This Royals lineup comes in hitting over .300 against him so sign me up for that matchup.

  • Cole Ragans will pitch for KC and I still won’t forget that this guy was one of the favorites to win the CY Young at one point before the season started. He’s had his ups and downs like the last time out he allowed 5 runs in 4.2 innings but he’s also been great at times like the 11 starts where he’s pitched 6+ innings and allowed 3 or less runs this season. 

  • The Orioles will face the A’s and Hogan Harris who has lost 6 of his 8 starts this season. 

  • Albert Suarez is going for the O’s and he’s been very good with a 2.43 ERA as he’s taken on a starting role over the last month plus.


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