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VIP Picks 9/11

New week. We won’t ever forget the brutal week that last week was for us but the only way to get better is by making adjustments and staying more disciplined. We were chasing right from the start with a big jackhammer loser last Monday. I feel like most of the plays were solid but we had a lot of things happen that was just a collective bundle of shit fucking luck. I’ll recap but you can just skip down to the picks if you don’t want to re-live horror week 2023. We lost 16 units last week and here’s how…..

  • Clemson fumbles inside the 6 yard line twice and misses 2 chip shot field goals

  • Kadarius Toney drops 2 WIDE OPEN passes that would have likely generated a 3-0 Thursday but definitely a 2-1 night with the 3 unit winner vs loser

  • Illinois throws a late interception in plus territory to miss their team total by 4

  • Mariners send Kirby out for the 7th inning when he said he couldn’t pitch anymore and then they gave up 4 runs to blow the lead

  • Wake Forest can’t punch it in the end zone from the 6 and 2 yard line on 2 separate occasions to miss the over by 2 points

  • USC / Stanford score 52 points in the first half (on pace for 104) and come up lame in the second half only scoring 14 to miss the over by 4 points

  • Kirk Cousins throws for 344 yards and loses by 3 at home to the Baker Mayfield led Bucs costing us a 10 to 1 parlay

If all of these plays go the other way, it would be worth around 22 units. Work to do to get back on track but we have still had 4 winning weeks in our last 6. Let’s make it 5 out of 7 with a big week this week. I will likely be more cautious than normal to start the week by stacking winners. Let’s go.


MLB:

1:05 EST

Braves (Morton) (-155)

  • The Braves and Phillies will play a double header today and we are taking the Braves in Game 1.

  • They will face Tajuan Walker who is having a great season at 15-5 but they come in hitting .382 against him lifetime and I can’t ignore numbers that good for them despite his record.

  • Charlie Morton will pitch for the Braves & he held the Phillies to 1 run over 5.1 innings in his only start against them earlier this season

  • Let’s take the Braves in Game 1


8:10 EST

Astros ML / Mariners ML (-106)

  • Framber Valdez will pitch for the Astros and he’s 5-1 against the A’s since the beginning of last season plus he’s held them to a .228 avg in 90 at bats

  • The A’s will have 25 year old Mason Miller pitching who hasn’t pitched poorly but the A’s are 0-4 in games that he’s started this season.

  • The Astros have a 2.5 game lead for their Division so they are playing meaningful baseball in September unlike the 44-99 A’s

  • The Mariners will face Reid Detmers who they hit hard the last time they faced him scoring 7 runs in 4 innings

  • Logan Gilbert will pitch for SEA & they are a solid 10-2 in his last 12 starts plus he will face an Angels lineup that is still without Ohtani in it and they have scored 3 runs or less in 5 of the 7 games since he got hurt.

  • The Mariners are coming off of a rough series against the Rays and they are clinging on to the 3rd Wild Card spot so this game means a lot more to them than it does to the Angels who are basically eliminated from any playoff chances in all reality

NFL:

8:15 EST

Player Prop

Garrett Wilson Receptions Over (5.5)

  • There aren’t many props that I like in this game just because of how good both defenses are going to be but this one is worth targeting.

  • Garrett Wilson went over 5.5 receptions in both games against the Bills last season with 8 and 6

  • That was with Zach Wilson and Mike White throwing him the ball. Now he has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball and he should be in for a big season

  • There are thunderstorms in the forecast during pregame but it looks like they will be moving out of the area a little after 8 so right around the start of this game but then the weather will be just fine for passing with basically no wind and partly cloudy the rest of the night

  • Fanduel has it at -128 and DK has it at -140 for you line shoppers looking to get a better price

8:15 EST

Bills (-130)

  • I expect a battle tonight between these 2 defenses that ranked 2 and 4 in points allowed per game last season. The most popular play is the under in this game but I’m going Bills moneyline and here’s why.

  • The Bills split the season series with the Jets last season but they won the most recent meeting 20-12. They also finished the season 13-3 compared to the Jets 7-10.

  • Aaron Rodgers comes to town but this Bills defense faced him on the Packers last season and held him to 17 points.

  • Rodgers led teams have gotten off to slow starts to start the season in recent years being held to point totals of 7, 3, & 10 in 3 of the last 4 years

  • On top of that trend, the Jets have dealt with injuries throughout camp and Dalvin Cook signed late so this offensive unit hasn’t got a lot of work together yet.

  • On the flip side, Josh Allen and this Bills offense know what they are in for in this matchup vs a very good Jets defense and I am more confident in them scoring points in this game which I agree with the public will be a low scoring defensive battle.

  • The Bills went 6-2 in road games last season which was 3rd best in the league behind the 2 teams that ended up playing in the Super Bowl.

  • Not taking points, just taking the Bills to win straight up at -130.

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