VIP Picks 9/11/25

I have no words to voice my frustration other than WHAT THE FUCK!? Our two MLB plays both lose by 1 run and the teams we bet on went a combined 2 for TWENTY FUCKING FOUR with runners in scoring position. That is so bad. But with 1-2 and 0-2 days back to back that makes me feel like we are due for some winners going into the football weekend and I’m ready for that. We are chasing 2.3 units going into Thursday Night so we really need a big 3-0 night tonight. Let’s focus on high percentage plays.

NFL:

I don’t want to hear shit about moneylines or adjusted lines in close games anymore after how last weekend went with the 3 teams we bet spread on winning but not covering.

8:15 EST

Packers (-2.5) - The X factor to this game is going to be the ability of the Packers to establish the run game with Josh Jacobs. Washington wasn’t bad against the run last week (we know huh Tyrone?) but they were ranked 31st against the run last year and most fantasy projections have Jacobs in the Top 5 for this week to validate how good of a matchup it is. The early run game will open up opportunities for Jordan Love to make plays down the field as well which he has proven he can do, he has a QB rating of 128.6 last week. The Packers are 6-1 in their last 7 home games with starters playing the whole game while covering -2.5 in 5 of those wins. Jayden Daniels was great last year and I don’t mean to throw shade but I’ll point out that he went 1-4 in the regular season vs teams who made the playoffs last year. He lit it up against the other 12 games against non playoff aka trash ass teams. This Packers team is a playoff team and my pick to make it to the Super Bowl to lose to the Ravens. A defense that was Top 10 against the run and the pass last year, I expect them to slow down this Commanders offense. 

8:15 EST

Alt Line Parlay

Josh Jacobs 60+ Rushing Yards / Terry McLaurin 4+ Receptions (-105)

The Alt line parlay was easy for us on Sunday Night Football so we are going to go back to what’s worked for us. I expect a huge game for Josh Jacobs against this Commanders defense who looked good in Week 1 vs the Giants but still ranked 31st against the run last season allowing 143 rushing yards per game. Jacobs had 19 carries last week and no one else on the team had more than 1 so he is the guy and he will get his work in tonight. He’s hit 60+ in 13 of his last 14 complete games played. McLaurin only had 2 catches last week but before that he’s had 4+ receptions in 7 of his last 9 games. I expect WAS to be playing from behind in the second half too so that should boost the passing game and chances for McLaurin to hit 4+ receptions for us. To be clear, this is an alternate line and if he finishes with 4 that is a winner, don’t take a line at 4.5 or higher. Ask me if you have questions. 

*Bonus Anytime TD

Zach Ertz (+265) - he's scored in 6 of his last 8 full games

MLB:

7:15 EST

Phillies (-130) - The Phillies have dominated the Mets the last two nights, we were on them on Tuesday and then should have been on them last night. Philly is up 20-6 in this series with another good matchup tonight. They will face David Peterson who they beat 7-1 last time they faced him and are hitting .307 against. Jesus Luzardo will pitch for the Phillies and he struggled against the Mets his last time but he also threw 6.2 scoreless innings in that 7-1 win vs the Mets earlier this season. Mets are struggling and the Phillies are hot so let’s ride it.