VIP Picks 9/14/25

2-1 with a JACKHAMMER winner is a good day any day of the week but great to hit it on a College Football Saturday. On to NFL Sunday and we are going for back to back JACKHAMMERS!

NFL:

1:00 EST

Parlay

Lions ML / Bills ML (-120)

The Lions looked lost in Week 1 but they were also on the road vs a very good Packers team. Now they are home against the Bears who they swept last season. Look for the Lions and all their offensive weapons to get going today. The Bears are on a short week after one of those games where you see the scoreboard memes like how did they blow that lead. Good spot for the Lions. The Bills were on the right side of their scoreboard meme game and they have a ton of momentum coming into Week 2 after a lot of good things in Week 1. They need to be a lot better defensively and Justin Fields and the new look Jets looked pretty good last week. I still like Buffalo to come away with the win in this game. 

1:00 EST

Cowboys ML / Ravens  ML (-167) - JACKHAMMER 3 UNIT

The Cowboys looked pretty good in their opener and now they’ve had extra time to prepare for this Week 2 matchup against the Giants who didn’t look very good in their first week of work. Their run defense was horrendous so I look for Javonte Williams to have a big game and that will open up the passing game for Dak Prescott who is 13-2 vs the Giants in his career and has won 13 in a row against them. I also think we saw some good things from the Cowboys defense in their first game even though it was a loss against the defending champs. The Ravens gagged their game away last week but now they will be home where they host the Browns who they beat 35-10 the last time they played them in Baltimore. Derrick Henry had 138 yards and 2 touchdowns in that game against the Browns so I’d expect big things from him. I value the fact that the Ravens dominated the Bills for 3 quarters last week and it’s hard to see them losing this game at home as double digit favorites. 

1:00 EST

Player Prop

Hunter Henry (NE) Receptions Over (3.5) - We played it last week and we are playing it again especially at -104 odds. Henry had 4 catches on 8 targets in the rain last week and he has now gone over 3.5 receptions in 9 of his last 10 full games played with Drake Maye. -104 odds for a 90% trend is the definition of value. The Dolphins allowed 96 yards and 8 receptions to tight ends last week. Henry had 5 catches on 8 targets for 44 yards against the Dolphins in Miami last year. 

1:00 EST

Player Prop

Christian McCaffrey (SF) Rushing Yards Over (78.5) - McCaffrey had 22 carries last week and that was with Brock Purdy throwing the ball 35 times. Purdy is out and Mac Jones is in at QB for the 49ers so that should mean the 49ers offense will revolve around CMC even more today. He takes on a Saints defense that allowed 146 rushing yards against the Cardinals last week. I like him to get 20+ carries and that should be enough to go over 78.5 for us.

4:25 EST

Eagles (-122) - It’s the Super Bowl rematch and this Eagles team completely dominated the Chiefs in that Super Bowl matchup 40-22 and it wasn’t even as close as that score makes it look, the Eagles were up 34-0 in that game. The Eagles had success through the air in that game with 5 guys with 20+ yard catches. The Chiefs defense got thrown all over against the Chargers last week so I’m confident the Eagles will be able to have success through the air again today. The public is all over the Chiefs and I get the mindset behind it that there’s “no way” the Chiefs start 0-2 but there is very much a way. This Eagles team is still the better team and that will show today, even on the road at Arrowhead. 

NFL Week 2 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks

1. Derrick Henry (Ravens RB) -205

Henry looked like his usual self in Week 1, rumbling for two touchdowns. Now he gets the Cleveland Browns, a team he dominated last season with three touchdowns in two games. Baltimore’s offense will ride Henry near the goal line, and it’s hard to imagine him not finding pay dirt again.

2. Christian McCaffrey (49ers RB) -195

With Brock Purdy sidelined and Mac Jones stepping in at quarterback, the 49ers will lean even more heavily on McCaffrey. He’s one of the most versatile red-zone players in football, and the matchup is perfect: the Saints ranked 30th against the run in 2024. Expect CMC to see increased touches and multiple scoring chances.

3. James Conner (Cardinals RB) -150

Conner scored in Week 1 and gets another soft matchup in Week 2 against the Panthers. Carolina’s defense allowed 200 rushing yards last week, and Arizona has shown a willingness to lean on Conner in goal-line situations. He’s in line for another productive game.

4. Javonte Williams (Cowboys RB) -125

Williams scored two touchdowns in Week 1 and now gets a dream matchup against the Giants. New York’s defense was shredded on the ground last week, giving up 220 rushing yards. Williams looks healthy and explosive, and Dallas should lean on him heavily again.

5. Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals WR) -135

Chase didn’t score in Week 1, but that’s not likely to last. He’s still Joe Burrow’s top target, and this week he draws the Jaguars, who had the worst pass defense in the league last season. In what should be one of the higher-scoring games of the week, Chase is a strong bet to get into the end zone.

6. DeVonta Smith (Eagles WR) +200

The Eagles face the Chiefs this week, and if last week was any indication, Kansas City’s secondary is vulnerable. The Chargers tore them up through the air, and Smith should be a focal point for Philadelphia. He already has a history of success against KC, scoring in the Super Bowl with 4 catches on 5 targets. At +200, Smith offers excellent value.

7. DK Metcalf (Seahawks WR) +150

This is a storyline play, as Metcalf goes up against his former team. He remains a go-to target in the red zone thanks to his size and physicality, and revenge-game narratives often come with extra motivation. At plus money, he’s worth a look.

A parlay of all 7 pays 87 to 1 odds!