VIP Picks 9/15/25

Winning day with another JACKHAMMER winner yesterday to close out the week up 2+ units depending on if you played every play or not. Feeling good going into the Monday Night Football double header and looking to build on our 4-1 Prime Time Player Prop run. Let's start the week with a 3-0 Monday!

NFL:

7:00 EST

Bucs / Texans Over (42.5) - Prime Time double header and 92% of the bets are on the under in this game so I’m playing a fade the public. Why? Over Under lines with 90%+ of the bets went 8-3 yesterday and 10-4 in the favor of fading the public so far this season. I also don’t think we saw these teams at their best in Week 1 offensively but remember the Bucs ranked 4th offensively scoring 29 ppg and the Texans scored 22 ppg last season. The Texans defense allowed the Rams to conver on 54% of their 3rd down last week so I expect the Bucs to be able to extend drives. CJ Stroud was much better at home than on the road last year so I expect him to get this Texans offense going. 23-20 seems easy but I think we could see even more points from these two teams tonight. 

7:00 EST

Alt Line Parlay

Mike Evans (TB) 50+ Rec Yds / Nico Collins (HOU) 50+ Rec Yds (-125) - We are 4-1 in our last 5 prime time player prop plays and 2 of them were alternate line parlays like this one. We are taking the top receiver for each team to get 50+ receiving yards tonight. Mike Evans has had 50+ in 9 straight games. Nico Collins has had 50+ receiving yards in 12 of his last 14 games. Good trends for both guys to hit their alternate lines tonight and not bad odds at -125 on DK. 

10:00 EST

Player Prop

Keenan Allen Receptions Over (4.5) - Remember we took him for 4+ in Week 1 because he was on a 38-2 and 49-5 run in games played with Herbert and the stats to back up that he’s always been Herbert’s go to guy? Yeah, then he went off for 7 catches on 10 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown so it’s no surprise that the line has been bumped up to 4.5 for his receptions in tonight’s Week 2 game against the Raiders. I still love it! He was targeted 10 times last week! If we look at games for Allen with Herbert against the Raiders, he’s had some big ones - 9 catches on 11 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown, 6 catches on 8 targets, 7 catches on 11 targets, & 6 catches on 14 targets with a TD.