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VIP Picks 9/2

The first College Football Saturday of the season is upon us and we are ready to fire away! We rolled to a 3-0 College Football Week 0 Saturday last week and that was impressive because we didn't have a full slate to chose from. We've got a good mix of plays here across the day. Let's get into it!!


Saturday VIP:

12:00 EST

Team Total 

Louisiana Tech Over (22.5)

  • LA Tech scored 22 last week but it could have been more if it wasn’t for a couple of turnovers. LA Tech had 27 first downs and 447 yards of total offense. Pretty good since FIU ran the ball 30 times in last week’s game and kept the clock running.

  • They will face a completely different offense today vs SMU who will be throwing the ball and playing up tempo

  • SMU ranked Top 15 in passing attempts per game last season and they have a new QB but the system will be the same. 

  • SMU should score a ton of points (their Team Total is 43.5) and I think their fast pace scoring will help LA Tech go over their Team Total at 22.5

  • SMU isn’t known for their defense by any means. They brought in some transfers but their primary strategy is to out score opponents, not stop them from scoring.

  • 11 straight opponents have scored 23+ against SMU


3:30 EST

Washington (-14)

  • Washington comes in with a lot of hope this season and are ranked at #10 to start the season

  • QB Michael Penix Jr wants to win the Heisman this season and he’s got the 5th best odds to start the season

  • Penix Jr threw for 4,641 yards and 31 touchdowns last season

  • He will be opening it up and running up the score against this Boise State defense that got lit up by any decent QBs they faced last year for 377 and 292. It should be a stat padding game for Penix Jr.

  • Washington also returns roughly 75% of their starters on both sides of the ball from last season when they went 11-2

  • Boise State will look to get their running game going but they are going to have a hard time keeping up with the Washington offense and dealing with the fired up Washington crowd


3:30 EST

Auburn / Umass Over (51.5)

  • I get it, the books don’t think Umass will do much on offense against this Auburn defense and I agree but I still think this line is low.

  • Umass got the win last week but the defense looked weak giving up 30 points to a New Mexico State team who can’t hold a candle to this Auburn team

  • Umass put up 41 points themselves but they capitalized on turnovers that set them up with good field position. We won’t be seeing 41 from them today.

  • But I do think there’s a good chance we see 41+ points from Auburn. 

  • Auburn added Payton Thorne at QB who should be able to throw the ball down the field against this Umass defense

  • Auburn will also be able to run with Jarquez Hunter who has averaged 6.5 yards per carry over the last 2 seasons and that’s against SEC defenses. 

  • Auburn should be able to score at will in this game.

  • I don’t expect much from the Umass offense early but I do think they are capable of scoring some points as this game goes on and gets out of hand - Auburn is favored by 35



7:30 EST

Team Total

South Carolina Over (30.5)

  • South Carolina scored 30+ points in 5 of their last 7 games to finish the season last year and the last 3 were very impressive performances with 63 vs #5 Tennessee, 31 vs #8 Clemson, and 38 vs #21 Notre Dame

  • They face a North Carolina offense that is a joke compared to those defenses, UNC allowed 31.3 ppg last season

  • Similar to the team total we are taking early in the day, we expect the UNC offense to score a ton of points themselves with the QB Drake Maye show. It should be a back and forth OFFENSIVE type of game tonight on prime time.

  • I see value targeting South Carolina’s Team Total rather than the combined total


7:30 EST

1st Quarter

Alabama / Mid Tenn Over (12.5)

  • Bama has questions at QB following the loss of #1 pick Bryce Young to the NFL Draft but they are still going to be loaded with talent and facing a much lesser opponent tonight

  • I went back and forth on taking the 1st quarter total or spread but landed on total just because I feel pretty confident in Bama scoring 2 touchdowns in the first 15 minutes

  • They opened up 17-0 in the 1st last year in a similar spot

  • This Middle Tennessee defense gave up some big numbers last year - 44, 45, 41, & 40 vs teams with much less talent than Bama

  • Remember that clip on the National Championship broadcast last year where Saban was told that Georgia had taken ahold of College Football and he looked pissed off? I think he’s coming into this season with a chip on his shoulder and looking to run every team off the field starting today. 



Off the Record but a lot of your are asking for more parlays


Week 1 Parlay

  • Colorado / TCU Over (63)

  • LA Tech / SMU Over (66)

  • South Carolina / North Carolina Over (63.5)

(+595)


Week 1 Lotto Shot Parlay


  • Colorado / TCU Over (63)

  • Washington (-14)

  • Ohio State (-30.5)

  • USC / Nevada Over (66)

  • South Carolina / North Carolina Over (63.5)

(+2435)


Added 4:40 EST

MLB:

7:10 EST

Mariners (Castillo) (-140)

☑️ Luis Castillo will take the mound for the Mariners tonight and he’s coming in on a 6 game winning streak

☑️ Castillo also has really good numbers against this Mets lineup in the past holding them to a .192 avg in 73 career at bats

☑️ David Peterson will pitch for the Mets and he’s actually been solid lately but he’s still 3-7 on the season plus the Mariners lineup has been better vs lefties this season

☑️ SEA has lost 2 of their last 3 which is a cold streak compared to the 12-1 run they had before that. Let’s take them to get back to winning tonight.

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