VIP Picks 9/21/25

2-2 Saturday thanks to a soft ass Clemson team and Cal got blown out to blow the West Coast parlay. We go into NFL Sunday still up 1 unit on the week and we are so due for our sweep!

1:00 EST

Teaser 6 Pt

Packers (-2.5) / Chiefs (0) - The Packers are off and running with a 2-0 start with both wins coming against good opponents who were playoff teams last year. Now they face the Browns who are not a playoff team and are 0-2. A Browns team that allowed 41 points to the Ravens last week. Green Bay is 4th defensively and they should build on those numbers today against this Browns offense that ranks 27th. Packers cover -2.5 for the teaser. Then the 0-2 Chiefs, WHAT!? Now I don’t think Patrick Mahomes can possibly start 0-3 especially with Chris Collinsworth calling the game on Sunday Night Football. “NOW HERE’S A GUY, PATRICKKK MAHOMEEEEESSSS.” 0-2 isn’t crazy for the Chiefs in one score games against very good Chargers and Eagles teams. They go on the road to face the Giants who had a big game offensively last week but also 0-2. Both teams are banged up coming into this game. Mahomes has to find guys to make plays but Kelce, Thornton, and Brown looked solid last week. The bright side of this matchup for the Chiefs is that the Giants only had success striking big passing plays last week and this KC defense hasn’t allowed any explosive plays like that this season. Patrick Mahomes figures out way to get the win here.

1:00 EST

Player Prop

Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards Over (81.5) - He had 170 rushing yards the last time he faced the Panthers and he had 95 in his other matchup against them last season. Bijan is coming off of a game where he ran for 143 yards. The Panthers defense is 25th allowing 141 rushing yards per game so give me Bijan over 81.5 all day! 

1:00 EST

Player Prop

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Over (72.5) - This feels like a buy low spot for Nico at 72.5. He hasn’t hit this number yet this year but he had MASSIVE games against this Jaguars defense last season where he had 8 catches for 119 yards and 12 catches for 151 yards. This Jags defense allowed 300+ passing yards to the Bengals QB combo but mostly Browning after Burrow went out last week and they had the worst pass defense in the league last year. Good spot and good line for Nico. 

4:05 EST

Chargers (-2.5) - The Chargers look legit with a healthy Justin Herbert and a strong defense through their first 2 games. They will host the Broncos today who they swept last year with 34-27 and 23-16 wins. The Broncos could very easily be 2-0 as well if it weren’t for a late penalty to give the Colts a second chance to kick the winning field goal last week but I still look at the Chargers as having the better resume knocking off the Chiefs in Week 1 and then locking down defensively against the Raiders in Week 2. I expect more strong defense from the Chargers today and Herbert to make plays against this Broncos defense. Herbert has played some close games vs the Broncos but he has a 63% winning percentage against him in his career. -2.5 is key because it’s a field goal but you can take moneyline if you feel better with that. 

4:25 EST

Cowboys (-125) - The Cowboys had to grind out a win in OT against the Giants last week but I don’t see them having any issues going on the road to beat the 0-2 Bears this week. The Bears lost 52-21 to the Lions last week giving up 334 passing yards and 5 passing touchdowns! This is going to be a game where Dak shows off the offensive weapons CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, and others. Big day for the Cowboys offense as long as the “scattered thunderstorms in the forecast don’t turn into a steady pouring rain. And I believe the Cowboys defense is better than they showed last week vs the Giants where they allowed big play after big play down the field of 48, 50, & 58 in big spots of the game. Expect adjustments from the Dallas defense this week and look for them to get the win.