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VIP Picks 9/24

Well the day got away from us yesterday...it's just shocking the Astros couldn't score any runs against Jordan Lyles. Then Colorado couldn't score and USC missed their total by 1 touchdown. NFL Sunday it is and we are firing away!


NFL:

1:00 EST

Bills ML / Chiefs ML / Cowboys ML (-132) - 2 UNITS

  • The Bills came back to reality and played like themselves in last week’s 38-10 win over the Raiders

  • The Commanders had a great comeback vs the Broncos last week and still almost blew it but they were also down 21-3 in that game

  • The Bills defense should make things difficult for WAS QB Sam Howell

  • Josh Allen should also be able to have a big day, Russell Wilson threw for 308 on WAS last week

  • The Chiefs are another team who bounced back in Week 2 and should be even better today against the Bears who are 2nd to last with 32.5 points allowed per game

  • The Chiefs defense also looked good last week holding the Jags to 9 points and didn’t even allow a touchdown

  • The Cowboys have steamrolled their opponents through the first two weeks outsourcing them 70-10. 70-10!

  • They will face the Cardinals who blew a 20-0 lead against the Giants last week

  • I think all three of these teams are going to cruise to wins for us today and this is definitely my most confident play of the day


1:00 EST

Teaser 7 Pt

Jaguars (-0.5) / Ravens (-1.5)

  • The Jaguars will host the Texans who lost by 11 to the Colts last week and the Jags beat the Colts by 10 a couple weeks ago. Nice common opponent stack up there with a delta of three touchdowns!

  • The Texans will be without a couple guys in the secondary so Trevor Lawrence should be able to take advantage of that.

  • The Jags beat the Texans 31-3 the last time they played them at the end of last season. It might be closer today but the Jags should win the game and cover the teaser for us

  • The Ravens will be going up against the Colts and backup QB Gardner Minshew who I respect mostly because of his mustache game but also the way he plays. However, he lost 40-14 last time he played in Baltimore.

  • The Ravens are missing a couple guys in the secondary but I don’t think the Colts offense will be able to keep pace with the Ravens so I’m willing to let the missing DBacks slide.

  • Lamar Jackson has completed 75% of his passes this season so look for him to be efficient and take his shots when he gets the chance against this Colts defense that ranks 28th against the pass


1:00 EST

Player Prop

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Over (100.5)

  • Jefferson has been great in his first 2 games with receiving yardage totals of 150 and 159.

  • He will be going up against the worst ranked passing defense in the league through two weeks today - the Chargers allowed 215 yards to Tyreek Hill a couple weeks ago

  • All signs point to Jefferson having a big day against them and he’s gone over this number by 50% in each of his first 2 games so let’s take him to go over again.

  • I also think he finds the end zone today


1:00 EST

Lions (-3)

  • The Lions opened the season by knocking off the defending SuperBowl Champs and then they followed that up by allowing 37 points to the Seahawks.

  • The thing about this matchup with the Falcons is that the Falcons are a run first team and the Lions defense has been great against the run in their first 2 games ranking 9th 

  • I feel pretty good about the Lions slowing the run down and forcing Desmond Ridder to throw who’s career high passing game is 237 yards.

  • Jared Goff and this Lions offense has looked good in both games and they scored 31 last week. 

  • The Falcons are 2-0 but they’ve played against two young QBs 24 and 22. I’m excited to see an experienced vet in Goff work against them to see how they hold up. 

  • The Lions are also 9-3 in their last 12 dating back to last season. Let’s take them to cover at home today. 


1:00 EST

Anytime Touchdown

Tyreek Hill (-110)

  • Tyreek has scored 3 touchdowns through his first 2 games

  • He leads the Dolphins in targets by more than double the next closest guy

  • Tyreek Anytime Touchdowns are fun bets because he can literally score from anywhere on the field at any time

  • The Broncos allowed Same Howell to throw for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns last week and he got a late start so I expect a big game from Tua and the Dolphins at home today.

  • Jaylen Waddle is out with a concussion so I think that favors Tyreek to score even more. 

  • I told myself I’d play Hill’s Anytime TD up to -150 and was pleasantly surprised to see it at -110.


1:00 EST

Player Prop Parlay

Kirk Cousins Alt Passing 250+ / Patrick Mahomes Alt Passing 250+ (-160)

  • Trying to take an easy one here

  • Cousins has been lighting it up through the air this season throwing for 344 and 364

  • He’s going against the worst passing defense in the league to this point

  • Mahomes threw for 305 last week and he’s going against a Bears defense that has allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 317 last week. Mahomes is going to tear them up.


1:00 EST

Player Prop

Stefon Diggs Receptions Over (5.5)

  • Diggs has gone over 5.5 receptions in each of his first 2 games

  • He caught 7 passes on 7 targets last week and 10 passes on 13 targets in Week 1

  • Josh Allen should be looking his way early and often again today





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