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VIP Picks 9/25

Great NFL Sunday for us despite the Cowboys spoiling one of the best NFL Sundays we’ve had in recent memory. It was still good to stack the wins we did and that’s now 8-2 in our last 10 NFL straight plays! We have another Monday Night Football doubleheader and we will need to be very selective with MLB this week just because it’s the last week of the regular season. I am not crazy about sides or totals in the games tonight. Let’s focus on some player props tonight.


NFL:

7:15 EST

Same Game Parlay

Jalen Hurts 25+ Rushing Yards / Baker Mayfield 200+ Passing Yards (-135)

  • Jalen Hurts has ran for 35 and 37 in his first 2 games and he’s gone for 25+ in 10 of his last 12 games going back to last season

  • Baker Mayfield threw for 317 last week and this Philly defense has allowed Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins to throw for 300+ in their first 2 games.

  • There were scattered thunderstorms in the forecast as of this morning but it looks like it’s going to be clear for this game now (as of 3:50 EST). Let’s go with Baker to get us 200+ passing yards.


8:15 EST

Player Prop

Puka Nacua Receiving Yards Over (70.5)

  • He’s listed as questionable with an oblique but Rams Head Coach Sean McVay expects him to play.

  • It’s impossible to ignore the trends we’ve seen from Nacua in the first 2 games - 15 and 10 catches for 147 and 119 yards.

  • He’s been targeted 35 times which is more than double of the next guy on the Rams and accounts for 39% of the passing attempts for the Rams so far.

  • The numbers point to Nacua being the go to guy for Stafford with Cooper Kupp out.

  • The Bengals defense has faced two run heavy teams to start the season so we can’t really stack up how good their pass defense will be. I’m confident that Nacua will see plenty of targets and chances to go over 70.5, he’s almost doubled this number in each of his first 2 games.

MLB:

9:40 EST

Rangers (Gray) (-1.5)

  • The Rangers are playing with a purpose and it’s to clinch the AL West Division this week.

  • They have won 5 in a row and have covered -1.5 in 4 out of those 5

  • They will face the shorthanded/falling apart Angels tonight and Patrick Sandoval who they absolutely crushed last time they faced him for 5 runs in 2.2 innings en route to a 12-0 victory

  • Jon Gray is pitching for the Rangers and he hasn’t been great in recent starts but he has been good against this Angels lineup in the past holding them to a .233 avg in 73 at bats.

  • Gray has only faced the Angels once this season and held them to 1 run in 7 innings. The Rangers should give him plenty of run support to cover the run line in this one.

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