The weekend was a let down, no other way to put it. A few things didn’t go our way like Ole Miss fucking us on Saturday and then the Jets losing at home to the Broncos really fucked us yesterday with the top ranked plays losing on Saturday and Sunday. Is there any good news? Yes, there’s playoff baseball this week and although today is the final day of the regular season for the Braves and Mets, it has direct playoff implications so it’s basically playoff baseball starting today. We also have a Monday Night Football double header! Day action baseball first!
MLB:
GAME 1
1:10 EST
Braves (Schwellenbach) (-148)
Big doubleheader today with Wild Card implications. If either team sweeps then the losing team is out and the DBacks get in. If these teams split the doubleheader then they are both in.
We are taking the Braves in Game 1 with Schwellenbach on the mound because he’s given this Mets lineup fits this season, holding them to 4 for 46 and a 33% strikeout rate. He’s only allowed 1 run in 14 innings against them this season.
Tylor Megill will pitch for the Mets and although he’s been great down the stretch, the Braves beat him 4-0 last time they faced him.
Braves have won 4 of last 5 and Mets have lost 3 of last 4.
NFL:
7:30 EST
Teaser 6 Point
Titans / Dolphins Over (31) / Lions (+2) 🥇
The Titans and Dolphins have gone over 31 in 5 of their 6 games combined this season, the one game the Dolphins went under was with Skylar Thompson at QB.
Tyler Huntley comes in tonight to make the start and he can make plays with his arms and legs. He’s also got experience and should be able to manage the offense and get the ball in the hands of the playmakers for Miami.
I think we will get a higher scoring game than most people think between these two tonight. Over 31 should be locked in.
The Lions will host the Seahawks who have benefited in large part of a weak ass schedule to this point. This Seahawks team went to overtime with the Patriots in their one road game…HA HA.
The Lions are 2-1 and the 1 loss came to a Bucs team that looks pretty good.
The Lions lost to the Seahawks in OT last year but they’ve come a long way since thing going 15-6 since then including a playoff run compared to the Seahawks 11-7.
7:30 EST
Tony Pollard Rushing Yards Over (51.5) 🥈
Pollard has gone over this number in 2 of his 3 games this season and the reason he went under in the other is because the Titans were getting blown out so they weren’t running the ball. This game projects to be a close game tonight so Pollard should get double digit rushing attempts.
He had 82 and 62 yards in the games he went over so covered this line comfortably in those games with 17 and 16 rushing attempts.
This Dolphins defense has allowed 112 rushing yards per game with the opposing leading rushing covering 51.5 in all 3 games.
Let’s go with Pollard to go over for us.
8:15 EST
Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown (-105)🥉
Gibbs has scored in 13 of his last 17 games so that’s a strong 76% trend and Fanduel has it listed at -105 odds. It’s pretty rare to see a 76% trend listed at -105 odds because you normally see that kind of stuff closer to -190 -200 range.
Gibbs can score running the ball or catching the ball and he has the speed to score from anywhere on the field and he’s had 8 games with plays of 20 yards or more in that same stretch as his touchdown streak.
The Seahawks defensive numbers are a bit skewed because of their weak schedule but it’s worth noting that 2 of the 3 touchdowns they have allowed have been rushing touchdowns.
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