VIP Picks 9/5/25

Alright 1-2 start to the NFL season atleast our winner basically hit in the first half. The weather delay didn’t help the other plays and even the announcers were shocked that Brown and Smith didn’t do anything. On to tonight and we are still up a unit going into the weekend so can’t complain. 3-0 Friday, LFG!

Cross Sport

7:10 EST

Parlay

Chiefs ML / Dodgers ML (+155)

The Chiefs and Chargers have played some close games but Patrick Mahomes is 10-2 against them in his career. I expect the Chiefs to come into this season with more motivation after getting throttled in the Super Bowl last year. Chiefs moneyline went 15-1 (94% trend) in the regular season last year so it’s a high percentage play. The Dodgers have been struggling but they are in a good spot to snap out of it tonight. They are in Baltimore where the ball should be flying and they are facing Dean Kremer who has allowed 14 fucking runs in his last 8 innings pitched. Tyler Glasnow will pitch for LA and he’s been solid he just hasn’t been getting run support when he’s on the mound but I expect him to get more than enough tonight. +155 to kick off the weekend!? LFG!

8:00 EST

Player Prop

Keenan Allen 4+ Receptions (-140)

I haven’t seen a more consistent trend like this in a long time. Keenan Allen returns to the Chargers where he has always been Justin Herbert’s go to guy. A stat to prove that is if you take all of the throws Justin Herbert has made in his whole career, he’s targeted Keenan Allen 556 times which is 23% of the time. Now here’s the real trend, Allen has had 4+ catches in 49 of his 54 games with Herbert (91% trend). By season, he went 4+ 12-1 in 2023, 10-1 in 2022, 16-0 in 2021, & 11-3 in 2020 we will blame that last one on the Covid and Herbert being a rook. So even better in recent years at 38-2 in his most 3 recent years with Herbert. Insane to get this at -140 on DK so don’t complain about juice for a 91% trend, most of the plays with trends like that are -250 or more. Cherry on top is he’s had 4+ receptions in all 5 career games against the Chiefs with Herbert at QB. Lock it in.

MLB:

9:40 EST

Red Sox (-125)

Red Sox make the West Coast trip to take on the DBacks and a former friend in ERod tonight. Actually the guys who have hammered ERod in their career weren’t teammates with him when he was on the Red Sox but overall this Sox lineup is coming in hitting .328 against Rodriguez and he’s 6-8 with a 5.40 ERA on the season. Payton Tolle will make his second start for the Sox and he looked really good in his debut where he literally went toe to toe with Paul Skenes last Friday. Big lefty who throws 99 with nasty stuff and had 8 strikeouts in his debut. Good luck to the DBacks seeing him for the first time. Good price on the Sox.