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VIP Picks 9/7/25

  • Writer: Kof
    Kof
  • Sep 6
  • 6 min read


Added 6:42 EST

8:20 EST

DeAndre Hopkins Receptions Over (1.5)

We cashed this same play on him in the Super Bowl last year. He’s in a new offense and he’s getting older but over 1.5 receptions is a good prop for a guy like him. It’s kind of a hunch play but it makes sense. 


8:20 EST

Alt Line Parlay

Derrick Henry 60+ Rush Yds / James Cook 40+ Rush Yds (-140) 💪 

Henry had 199 and 84 vs the Bills last year and went 60+ in 18 of his 19 games. Then James Cook had 67 and 39 against the Ravens last year and had 40+ in 13 of 19 games but he had 39 two times. High percentage plays let’s hit it hard. 



Oh happy day! Our first NFL Sunday of the season is here. It’s a fresh slate for every team in the league and of course for all bettors looking for a winning NFL season. We are 60%+ in 5 of our last 9 so the goal is to finish the whole season at 60%+ again this season. It’s easy to get carried away with all of the action especially at the beginning of the season so I would suggest you break your bets up into 3 categories:


  1. High percentage plays - these are your 1-3 unit plays that will consistently build your bankroll

  2. Mid tier plays - could be mid tier TD scorer plays you like or 3-5 leg parlays that might not always hit but they have a good shot and solid odds

  3. Lotto parlays - these make it fun but they rarely hit. Still, you don’t hit those $5 for $137k parlays if you don’t play them


Bet responsibly. Check in on your progress each week. Don’t start betting more and chasing things if you go on a cold streak.


NFL

1:00 EST

Bengals (-5.5)

The Browns went 4-13 vs the spread last year and they are starting Old Man Joe Flacco at QB today. The Bengals have got off to slow starts in recent years but one team they don’t play slow against is this Browns team who they have covered the spread against in 4 of their last 5. Joe Burrow led the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns last year which goes to show how pathetic this Bengals defense was. Burrow completed 77% of his passes and threw for 3 touchdowns in a 24-6 win the last time he faced the Browns. 


1:00 EST

Steelers (-3)

Weird storyline with Rodgers going against the Jets who he didn’t do shit with the last couple years. I can’t get the meme of Rodgers in a Steelers uniform in a cialis commercial out of my head but I think the Steelers could be underrated this year. It all starts with their defense that ranked 7th in the league in points allowed last year. I expect them to shut down this Jets offense led by Justin Fields who hasn’t looked good in preseason camp. Rodgers is old but having guys like Metcalf and Austin III to throw to might be able to bring back some magic for him. Jaylen Warren will be solid at RB taking that starting spot with Najee Harris leaving. It feels like the Steelers could run away with this game as long as the defense plays up to expectations. 


1:00 EST

Player Prop

Hunter Henry Receptions Over (3.5)

Solid +108 odds for this one, Henry went over this number in 8 of his final 9 full games with Drake Maye last season. He led the team in targets, receptions, & yards last year so I expect him and Maye to continue to rely on that chemistry that they have built. The Raiders allowed 101 receptions by tight ends last year which was 6th most in the league. Love this play for Henry at 3.5 and plus money. 


1:00 EST

Player Prop

Tyrone Tracy Jr Rushing Yards Over (58.5)

Tracy took on the lead back role as the season went on last year and he went over 58.5 rushing yards in 6 games including 66 yards on 16 carries the last time he faced this Commanders defense. This Commanders defense was second worst in the league against the run last season allowing 143.4 rushing yards per game. Look for Tracy to go over for us today. 


4:25 EST

Teaser 6 Pt

Lions +8.5 / Ravens +4.5

The Lions beat the Packers twice last season so it feels good getting them at +8.5 in this teaser. Jordan Love is 2-4 against the Lions in his career. Detroit lost their offensive coordinator but they still have the playmakers all over the field. Packers are a great team but it’s hard to see the Lions losing by 9+. The Ravens smoked the Bills on the regular season last year 35-10 in a game where Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards. The Ravens season ended in Buffalo when Mark Andrews dropped the wide open 2 point conversion attempt. I expect a great game but I love the Ravens getting +4.5. 


*Anytime TD Rankings are not included in VIP Picks results KofSports2025

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Rankings – Week 1

  1. Ja'Marr Chase (WR, Cincinnati Bengals) (-135)

Chase remains Joe Burrow’s go-to weapon, especially in the red zone. Last season, Chase ranked #1 in red-zone targets (35) among wide receivers and scored 17 touchdowns. Facing a division rival in Week 1, expect Burrow to test Chase early and often, especially against a secondary that struggled to contain elite WR1s in 2024.


  1. Derrick Henry (RB, Baltimore Ravens) (-160)

King Henry's reputation speaks for itself. Last season, he graded out as one of the NFL's most efficient red-zone rushers PFF. Paired with his ironman reputation and elite goal-line skill, he's a premier red-zone asset right out of the gate. He scored in both games against the Bills last season and had 199 rushing yards against them in the regular season.


  1. Mike Evans (WR, Tampa Bay Bucs) (+110)

Evans continues to be one of the most consistent touchdown scorers in the NFL. He’s scored double-digit TDs in 4 of his last 5 seasons and thrives in contested catch situations. The Week 1 matchup is favorable—Evans faces a defense that allowed 22 TDs to wide receivers last season (worst in the NFL). With Baker Mayfield trusting him as a jump-ball specialist, Evans offers plus-money value. Evans scored 2 touchdowns against the Falcons last season.


  1. Christian McCaffrey (RB, San Francisco 49ers) (-150)

CMC only played 4 games last season but led the league in total touchdowns in 2023 with 21. He is questionable this week but if he plays, he’s worth a play. He’s a dual-threat weapon both on the ground and through the air, making him nearly impossible to game plan against. Facing a defense that ranked 16th against the run last season, McCaffrey should see multiple red-zone opportunities. He’s one of the safest Anytime TD bets every week.


  1. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Detroit Lions) (-115)

A fantasy darling and touchdown machine, Gibbs scored in each of his final 5 games with 10 total touchdowns during that stretch and led the league 16 rushing touchdowns. With the Lions embracing his receiving and rushing versatility, he’s on the list for Week 1 and will likely be hanging out on the list most weeks of the season.


  1. James Conner (RB, Arizona Cardinals) (-155)

Conner quietly remained one of the league’s most efficient red-zone runners in 2024, punching in 9 touchdowns despite Arizona’s offensive struggles. Conner should continue to dominate short-yardage and goal-line carries. Against a defense that allowed 18 rushing TDs last season (tied for worst in the league), Conner has strong odds to score.


  1. Malik Nabers (WR, New York Giants) (+150)

A deep sleeper with high-volume red-zone opportunities, Nabers offers upside for both receptions and big TD plays. Plus he has a QB that we think we can trust in Russell Wilson.


8. Kyren Williams (RB, Los Angeles Rams) (-140)

A goal-line bull in 2024, Williams led the league in carries inside the 5-yard line and was 5th in rushing TDs with 14.  With his role secure heading into 2025, he's a solid Week 1 red-zone threat despite Houston's defense being solid against the run.


9. Jaylen Warren (RB, Pittsburgh Steelers) (+160)

With Najee Harris gone, Warren becomes the lead back and should be heavily involved in short-yardage and goal-line sets. Every player is plus money in this game but we like the value on Warren.


  1. Stefon Diggs (WR, New England Patriots) (+175)

Now expected to be the WR1 in New England, Diggs brings his elite route-running and red-zone savvy to an offense desperate for reliable weapons. Despite a down year by his standards in 2024, Diggs finished with 3 touchdowns in 8 games. He’ll draw a Week 1 matchup against a secondary that ranked 16th against the pass. At almost 2 to 1 odds, Diggs is an excellent value for Anytime TD markets.


Anytime Touchdown Scorer Parlay Week 1

If you parlay all 10 of these guys to score in Week 1, the parlay pays 947 to 1 odds so $10 would pay $9,475.12.

 
 
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