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VIP Picks 9/7

NFL IS BAAAAAAACK!!! We've had a tough start to the week with some MLB action not going the way we expected but let's not forget the +17.5 units in August ;) We will be just fine. NFL is betting season and I'd like to welcome back a lot of previous VIP Members and NEW VIP Members who have joined up for the start of the season. I'm ready to roll and we are kicking off the season with a JACKHAMMER play tonight! Let's get into the picks:


Cross Sport:

7:20 EST

THE TOMAHAWK CHOP PARLAY

Braves ML / Chiefs ML (-116)

  • The Braves have lost back to back games to the Cardinals but not tonight!

  • ATL will face Adam Wainwright who is 3-10 with an 8.10 ERA. ATL comes in hitting .325 against him. This is going to be pound town.

  • Max Fried will pitch for ATL & he’s coming off of 7 scoreless innings vs the Dodgers (#2 offense) plus he’s 6-1 this season so he should be good again tonight.

  • Then it’s on to the Chiefs in the NFL Opener

  • Travis Kelce hurt & Chris Jones out. I don’t care, it’s still Pat Mahomes at home, on Opening Night.

    • Mahomes 17-3 last 20 home games

    • Mahomes 5-0 in Week 1 in his career

  • The DET defense was horrible last season & some will say they got better later in the season but giving up 37 in Week 16 to Carolina isn’t called getting better.

  • We won’t know what we are getting from Kelce until we see him out there (if we do) but there are other guys in this Chiefs offense that Mahomes will work just fine with

  • I don’t have much to say about the Chiefs defense but I’ll say that the energy and volume from the crowd on banner night will help them get a few stops down the stretch.

  • I just can't see the Chiefs losing at home on Opening Night

  • You all thought this one was going to be the JACKHAMMER but it's not....although definitely worthy

NFL:

8:20 EST

Player Prop

Pat Mahomes Alternative Passing Yards 250+ / Jared Goff Alternative Passing Yards 200+ (-198) - JACKHAMMER - 3 UNITS

  • Some will call it cheap but I’ll always take a better likelihood of winning at less odds so we are parlaying these alternative passing yard totals for both QBs. We also need about 100 less passing yards collectively to win our bet. I’ll be thrilled if they go over their actual lines and they probably will but I’m more comfortable on the lower lines and I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is but betting more on it.

  • Football is life. In life, some things just make sense. This play makes all the sense in the world.

  • Mahomes averaged 308 passing yards per game last season and he should probably go for 300+ against this Lions defense that ranked 30th against the pass last season but we only need 250+ from him - again, it increases our chances of winning

  • Goff averaged 261 passing yards last season but we only need 200+ from him. He went over 200+ in 15 of 17 games last season. Assuming he’s playing from behind tonight, he should be throwing the ball and get to 200+ for us.

  • LFG!!

8:20 EST

Player Prop

Harrison Butker XP Made Over (2.5) (Listed on Draftkings)

  • Kickers get love too!

  • Butker went over 2.5 XPs made in 11 of 16 games last season (69%)

  • DET allowed an average of 3 touchdowns per game last season so KC should do some scoring & Butker should have his opportunity to go over 2.5 XPs

  • Butker hit XPs at 94% last season

*I'd wait to bet this one until right before kickoff. It sounds like Kelce's status will be announced after his pre-gam warm up. Reports say he's not in pain as of today sooooo.....gimme the -120 if he's playing*

8:20 EST

Player Prop

Travis Kelce Anytime TD (-120)

  • If he’s playing, I’m taking my chance on an Anytime TD at -120 odds. Probably the best odds you’ll see for his Anytime TD prop all season.

  • He had 4 touchdowns in 3 Playoff games last season following a drought to end the regular season

  • He had 7 TDs in his first 5 games last season

  • The media is playing up the injury but if Travis Kelce is on the field, I’m taking him to score a TD. No need to over think it.

  • If he starts the game and comes out because of injury then we are screwed but I'm willing to take the risk.

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