2-2 yesterday and if it wasn’t for a holding call on Milroe’s 74 yard touchdown run we would have been 3-1. On to our first NFL Sunday of the year!
1:00 EST
Alt line
Saints (-3) 🥈
The Saints will host the Panthers who they went 2-0 against last season and beat them 28-6 in the most recent matchup.
Derek Carr was better in the 2bd half of the season last year and that momentum should carry over to this year.
The Panthers added some pieces in the offseason but they still ranked last in the league in points per game last season.
The Saints added Chase Young in the offseason which will help with the pass rush this season starting today.
Who dat!? Who dat say they gonna beat dem Saints!
1:00 EST
Player Prop
D’Andre Swift Rushing Yards Over (44.5) 5️⃣
Good value here for Swift to run for 45+
He did that in 12 of 14 games with double digit carries last season.
The Titans defense was middle of the pack against the run last season allowing 107 rushing yards per game.
Expecting Swift to be the main guy but split some of the work load with Herbert but 44 looks low. I put him in the 60s in this matchup.
Caleb Williams will be in his first career start and Swift should get carries to take some pressure off of him
4:05 EST
Davante Adams Anytime TD (+200) 4️⃣
WHAT!? +200!?
He scores and went over 100 yards against the Chargers last year with Easton Stick throwing to him. Look it up.
The Chargers allowed the 4th most touchdowns to Wide Receivers last year (20)
Gardner Minshew will be throwing to him today and I know he hasn’t done much the last few years but he’s got a good opportunity here and him to Davante should be a nice recurring TD connection this season.
Plus he’s got the 👨🏻
4:25 EST
Teaser 6 Point
Cowboys (+8.5) / Bucs / Commanders Over (36.5) 🥇
I like the Cowboys to win but seeing the spread in plus territory and being able to tease it to +8.5 feels like a nice cushion.
The Browns will have Deshaun Watson back but they won’t have Nick Chubb who is a huge piece of that offense.
There’s projected to be some wind in Cleveland today so I honestly look at this game as it being tough for either team to really pull away. Let’s take Dallas with a cushion.
Then it’s Bucs vs Commanders over 36.5 on the teaser which is a 20-17 game at minimum to go over.
Baker Mayfield should come out slinging it vs a defense that ranked last against the pass and points allowed per game a season ago.
I also expect Washington to do some scoring with #2 overall pick Jayden Daniels making his debut vs a TB defense that was 28th vs the pass last year.
4:25 EST
Austin Ekeler Receptions Over (2.5) 🥉
The Chargers used him as a run and pass catching back with him having 3+ receptiosn in 9 games last season.
It’s his first game with the Commanders so we don’t know how they will use him but you have to assume that it’s going to be the same way.
Add in that Jayden Daniels in making his NFL debut at QB and having Ekeler as a check down option makes this one look really good and that’s why it’s -150 but we will be happy to cash another high percentage NFL Player Prop.
Anytime TD Scorers (Ranked in order of confidence)
Davante Adams
Mike Evans
CeeDee Lamb
Stefon Diggs
Alvin Kamara
Cooper Kupp
Kenneth Walker III
Parlay of them all would pay 412 to 1 👀
*If we are looking good 45 min before the Sunday night game I will look to add another play! Feel free to reach out to me and get my thoughts on any game today! Good luck and enjoy it!
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