Well alrighty then, 8-10 hours wasted of deciding what to bet on for Opening Night all because Kadarius mother fucking Toney couldn’t catch the ball. One of his bobbles led to a pick 6 which cost us the KC/ATL parlay and then he dropped another wide open pass that cost us the JACKHAMMER. We only needed 24 more passing yards from Mahomes. That 47 yard pass interference call kind of fucked us too. It hasn’t been our week. My goal today through Sunday is to make up as much as we can.
Mariners (Kirby) (-115)
The Mariners will face the Rays and Taj Bradley who they hit hard last time they faced him on 7/2, they scored 5 runs in 3.1 innings against him.
Bradley got hit really hard in July and had a 7.89 ERA then he missed August and was good in his first start back last Sunday. I still like what the Mariners did against him earlier this season and he’s lost 6 of his last 7 starts.
George Kirby will pitch for the Mariners and he held this Rays lineup to 2 runs over 7 innings of work on 7/1. Kirby is coming off a rough start but overall he’s been really good so I’m confident in riding with him tonight.
Dodgers (Sheehan) (-155)
The Dodgers put up a 10 piece last night after losing back to back games against the Marlins so they should be good coming into this series vs the Nationals who have gone 2-8 over their last 10 and LA has gone 2-1 against them this season.
Mackenzie Gore will pitch for WAS and he has had an up and down season but he comes in 7-10.
Emmet Sheehan will pitch for LA and the key for him is walks, he is 4-1 in games that he has issued 2 or less walks this season. He should be able to attack the zone vs a lower ranked WAS lineup.
Blue Jays ML Braves ML (+109)
The Blue Jays have jumped up into that 3rd Wild Card spot but only by half a game so they are hoping to get some wins vs a BAD Royals team this weekend.
Yusei Kikuchi will pitch for TOR and he held this KC lineup to 1 run over 5 innings earlier this season on 4/4.
Collin Snider will open for KC but then it will likely be 1-14 Zack Greinke out of the bullpen who TOR comes in hitting .320 against in a large sample size of 122 at bats.
ATL will face the Pirates and Mitch Keller who they have really good success against in the past and come in hitting .362 against him. Keller has an 11.67 career ERA vs the Braves and has never beat them.
Bryce Elder will pitch for ATL and he’s been on a nice run pitching 5+ innings and allowing 1 run or less in 3 of his last 4 starts.
Player Prop Hit Parlay
Rafael Devers / Ronald Acuna Jr (-132)
They say when times get tough, go to what works for you and our hit parlays are 16-4 in our last 20 player prop parlays.
Devers will be at a hot and humid Fenway Park tonight against Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish who he comes in hitting .462 (6 for 13) against in his career
Devers has hit safely in 5 of his last 6 games and he’s had multiple hits in 4 of those 6 games.
Ronald Acuna Jr will go against Mitch Keller of the Pirates who he comes in hitting just under .300 against with 2 career homeruns against.
Acuna Jr has hit safely in 8 of his last 10 games and 3 of his 4 games vs the Pirates this season.
Illinois Over (26.5)
I like this game to be high scoring as I think both teams have some holes on the defensive side and are capable of scoring on offense. Illinois scored 30 last week and Kansas scored 48 last week.
Kansas allowed 17 points to Missouri State last week and they held them to 1 for 9 on 3rd down. Illinois will convert at a higher percentage and that will translate to more points tonight
The Kansas defense has 7 returning starters on a unit that ranked 125 out of 130 in rushing yards allowed per game.
The Illinois offense is built on running the ball and they will have success against this Kansas defense tonight.
Kansas also lost 3 of their 4 starters in the secondary so new Illinois QB Luke Altmyer who came over from Ole Miss should be able to take some shots down field as well.
On the flip side, Kansas will get their starting QB back from injury tonight and they play at a fast pace so I like them to score some points as well but I see more value on Illinois going over 26.5 than taking the combined total over at 56.5.