Bills vs Rams Player Props: Monday Night Football Picks

Buffalo visits Los Angeles for Monday Night Football on October 12, 2026 with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium. Our Bills vs Rams player props card starts with Kyren Williams’ receiving yards and Josh Allen’s passing yards, plus a lower-confidence Matthew Stafford rushing lean.

The lines and DraftKings prices below come from the supplied KofSports prop-trends snapshots. They are reference prices, not a live odds feed. Recheck the line, price, and player availability before placing a wager.

Bills vs Rams Player Props: Picks at a Glance

Top pick: Kyren Williams Over 20.5 receiving yards (-114).

Second pick: Josh Allen Over 246.5 passing yards (-111).

Lower-confidence lean: Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 rushing yards (-115).

Kyren Williams Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Williams’ receiving prop is our preferred Kyren play. The snapshot shows him clearing 20.5 yards in 4 of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 10. His season sample is 3 of 4. The 5 displayed results are 67, 70, 12, 24, and 22 receiving yards.

That is stronger recent support than his rushing Over 69.5, which cleared in three of five and six of 10. Both Kyren markets show three of four this season, so the distinction comes from the longer trend and the receiving threshold.

At 20.5, Williams needs 21 receiving yards. A few short completions with yards after the catch could get him there; a designed screen or longer reception could shorten that path. That is the case for the pick, rather than an assumption that Buffalo will concede easy running-back production.

The risk is limited receiving volume. Two of the four recent clears were only 22 and 24 yards, so a higher line can materially change the appeal. Our recommendation is tied to 20.5 at the supplied -114 price. The historical hit rate is context, not a forecast of an 80% chance to win.

Josh Allen Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Allen’s snapshot also shows 4 clears in his last 5 games, 7 in his last 10 and 3 in 4 this season. The displayed totals are 253, 204, 248, 334, and 283 passing yards.

The Over needs 247 yards. The recent results support considering that threshold but the 248- and 253-yard games were narrow clears. This is a line-sensitive play, not a reason to chase an Over after a substantial move.

The path is sustained passing volume in a competitive game. Buffalo leaning on its running game, building a comfortable lead or losing drives to turnovers could reduce Allen’s opportunities. Those are game-script risks, not outcomes we can establish from a trend card alone.

Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (-115): Smaller Lean

Stafford needs at least 1 net rushing yard. His 5 recent results are 10, 13, -1, -1 and 16, with 3 clears in 5. The longer and season samples are less convincing: 5 of 10 and 2 of 4.

One positive scramble could be enough but a low threshold does not make this automatic. Kneel-downs can subtract rushing yards and Stafford may finish without a positive rushing attempt. At -115, the even-money historical samples do not demonstrate a clear edge. This is the lowest-confidence angle on the card but a fun one; passing on it is reasonable.

How to Use These Prop Trends

The hit rates compare historical yardage totals with the line shown in the snapshot. They do not establish what earlier sportsbook lines were or whether earlier wagers won. The five-game, 10-game and season windows overlap, so they should not be treated as independent evidence. The screenshots provide no head-to-head sample for these props.

Keep the plays separate when assessing their value. Combining them in a same-game parlay changes the risk and price; the individual trends do not validate the combined ticket.

Get a Free Week of KofSports Premium

Want more NFL player prop analysis and premium picks? Start your free week of KofSports Premium and explore the premium content before choosing your next play.

Our preferred Bills vs Rams prop is Kyren Williams Over 20.5 receiving yards at the supplied -114 price, followed by Allen Over 246.5 passing yards. Stafford’s rushing Over remains a smaller lean.